modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

Tue Apr 2 18:58:08 UTC 2019

> On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deleskie at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is nearing straight up :)

I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers.

The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900.  You get different population scale and average usage.

I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth internet usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G connection you can support 500-800 subscribers these days.  Ideally you can get a 10G link for a reasonable price.  Your scale looks different as well as you can work with “the content guys” once you get far enough.

Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday.

- Jared