modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

Tue Apr 2 18:56:09 UTC 2019

Louie,

 Its almost like us old guys knew something, and did know everything back
then, the more things have changed the more that they have stayed the same
:)

-jim

On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 3:52 PM Louie Lee <louiel at google.com> wrote:

> +1 Also on this.
>
> From my viewpoint, the game is roughly the same for the last 20+ years.
> You might want to validate that your per-customer bandwidth use across your
> markets is roughly the same for the same service/speeds/product. If you
> have that data over time, then you can extrapolate what each market's
> bandwidth use would be when you lay on a customer growth forecast.
>
> But for something that's simpler and actionable now, yeah, just make sure
> that your upstream and peering(!!) links are not congested. I agree that
> the 50-75% is a good target not only for the lead time to bring up more
> capacity, but also to allow for spikes in traffic for various events
> throughout the year.
>
> Louie
> Google Fiber
>
>
> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 11:36 AM jim deleskie <deleskie at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a
>> broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do
>> some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with
>> more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the
>> methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per
>> sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The
>> "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are
>> all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the
>> question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is
>> nearing straight up :)
>>
>> -jim
>>
>> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 3:26 PM Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike at swm.pp.se>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On Tue, 2 Apr 2019, Tom Ammon wrote:
>>>
>>> > Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really
>>> > asking is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are
>>> going
>>> > to bring to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks
>>> > such as QUIC and TCP BBR?
>>>
>>> I don't see how QUIC and BBR is going to change how much bandwidth is
>>> flowing.
>>>
>>> If you want to make your eyeballs happy then make sure you're not
>>> congesting your upstream links. Aim for max 50-75% utilization in 5
>>> minute
>>> average at peak hour (graph by polling interface counters every 5
>>> minutes). Depending on your growth curve you might need to initiate
>>> upgrades to make sure they're complete before utilization hits 75%.
>>>
>>> If you have thousands of users then typically just look at the
>>> statistics
>>> per user and extrapolate. I don't believe this has fundamentally changed
>>> in the past 20 years, this is still best common practice.
>>>
>>> If you go into the game of running your links full parts of the day then
>>> you're into the game of trying to figure out QoE values which might mean
>>> you spend more time doing that than the upgrade would cost.
>>>
>>> --
>>> Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike at swm.pp.se
>>>
>>
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