misunderstanding scale (was: Ipv4 end, its fake.)

Tue Mar 25 01:12:00 UTC 2014

I agree with "one" thing herein....

> In order for IPv6 to truly work, everyone needs to be moving towards IPv6.

Yep, chicken and the egg. I agree. We built an IPv6 "native" network - no
tunneling - no customers to speak of ... didn't even bother to start IPv6
peering on it.

> Maintaining dual protocols for the entire internet is problematic,
> wasteful, and horribly
> inefficient at best. Bottom line, the internet outgrew IPv4 almost 30
> years ago and
> we’ve been using various hacks like NAT as a sort of IPv4 life-support
> ever since.

30 years - oh, come on now - maybe it outgrown on someone's EBITDA chart
they handed an investor. At least a couple of decades of exaggeration in
that number.

>
> Ask any doctor about the prospects for a patient on life support for years
> at a time
> and they will probably laugh at you. Patients rarely survive more than a
> few days
> on life support, let alone weeks, months, or even years.
>
> Yes, we’ve done really well with internet life support. So well that many
> have been
> lulled into a false sense of safety believing that these extreme measures
> can be
> continued indefinitely and scaled well beyond their breaking points.
>
> There is little visibility into the escalating cost and complexity of
> these measures
> and even less awareness of the relative ease of deploying IPv6 compared to
> most
> of these mechanisms.

Sorry Owen - bad analogy - unlike a person, IPv4 won't die because it
can't accommodate more - here's a reality analogy for you.

In the Internet Casino, all the Internet black jack tables are full. All
seats taken. The players don't want to play with the new blue chip IPv6
currency. So the house simply raises IPv4 green chip minimum limit for a
seat.

An there you have it, how much is someone willing to pay for space in the
Internet casino. Well, it's much more than free and probably close to the
dollar level in the presentation by Lee Howard at an ARIN meeting (I think
it was in Barbados or maybe I have that meeting place wrong and it was
NANOG) ... Well, $40/month per IP address will be the pain level for all
customers to finally cash-in the IPv4 chips and move to IPv6.

While the world is not capitalistic, the USA is. Just because it works in
Sweden doesn't mean it's ready to work here (Health Care). So what
percentage of web pages are my USA customers reading in foreign languages
?  Gee, the world doesn't need more IPv4 space to make an english page
available to reach a US customer. Not much when they move their language
base of users to IPv6 they will find they have plenty of IPv4 space left
over. And what percentage of my customer base needs to put up IPv6 web
pages ? Not many most of the world can't afford our goods - so that leaves
a small percentage of US sites that need IPv6 and probably already have
begun that in place.

Thus far, IPv6 has been the "Field of Dreams" .... those of us who have
built it, we know they have not yet come  (the IPv6 customers).  That's
all this discussion is really about is "when will they come".

I know the core of the Internet will be IPv4 for many years. All one has
to do is talk to a few customer to find out that they are in no hurry. 
It's a no-brainer, because , none of us charges a customer more than than
lunch money for an IPv4 address.

Now, if you tell me all the porn site owners were great net citizens,
ready to move to IPv6 and shut off IPv4 access, well then I can see things
moving along much faster.

Bob Evans
Founder/CTO
Fiber Internet Center

>
> Owen
>
> On Mar 22, 2014, at 2:25 AM, Bryan Socha <bryan at digitalocean.com> wrote:
>
>> Fair point.   There are some situations that do need more than most, but
>> aren't they the ones that should be on ipv6 already???????
>>
>> I know a few are shouldn't I be on ipv6 and that's fair too.   I'm
>> plqnnning some speaking engagements to cover that.  Its not blind and
>> ignoring.
>> On Mar 22, 2014 4:36 AM, "TJ" <trejrco at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Millions of IPs don't matter in the face of X billions of people, and
>>> XX-XXX billions of devices - and this is just the near term estimate.
>>> (And don't forget utilization efficiency  - Millions of IPs is not
>>> millions of customers served.)
>>>
>>> Do IPv6.
>>> /TJ
>>>
>>> On Mar 22, 2014 3:09 AM, "Bryan Socha" <bryan at digitalocean.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> As someone growing in the end of ipv4, its all fake.    Sure, the rirs
>>> will
>>>> run out, but that's boring.    Don't believe the fake auction sites.
>>>> Fair price of IP at the end is $1 for bad Rep $2 for barely used, $3
>>>> for
>>> no
>>>> spam and $4 for legacy.    Stop the inflation.     Millions of IPS
>>>> exist,
>>>> there is no shortage and don't lie for rirs with IPS left.
>>>
>
>
>