Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

Matthew Petach mpetach at netflight.com
Mon Jun 6 18:41:36 CDT 2011


On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
...
>> IPv4 will never reach those figures.  IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for
>> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
>> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
>
> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet
> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about
> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> of the future network.
>
> Owen

Hm.  With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of
doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people
on the internet?

I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue
at that pace.

Matt

[0] http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm [1]

[1] I am strongly suspicious of their data, so my estimate lops their
number in half.  If you believe their data, in seven doublings, we'll
be at 256B in 15 years.  I find that number to be equally preposterous.




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