Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Mon Jun 6 16:36:26 CDT 2011


On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:

> 
> In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892 at goat.gigo.com>, Jason Fesler wr
> ites:
>>> But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
>>> IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the populace
>>> can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start calling
>>> and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
>> 
>> Won't happen this year or next.  Too much money at stake for the web 
>> sites.  Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even 
>> remotely considered.  Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial at 
>> $dayjob.
> 
> IPv4 will never reach those figures.  IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for
> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).

I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet
to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about
15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
of the future network.

Owen





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