Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

Jérôme Nicolle jerome at ceriz.fr
Mon Jun 6 23:56:27 UTC 2011

2011/6/7 Matthew Petach <mpetach at netflight.com>:

> Hm.  With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of
> doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people
> on the internet?
> I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue
> at that pace.

Well, todays Internet is made of 1B pairs of eyeballs with a roughly
average of 120kbps each. Todays average in France is closer to
180kbps, it was closer to 100kbps two years ago (the 3-strikes law
side-effect made individual bw consumption spikes with the emergence
of many streaming services, far more BW-hungry than soft P2P protocols
like eMule), whilst operators gained 8% of annual organic growth (18
to 21M subscribers). That's a bit more than 200% in 2 years. Before
that, the avergae bw consumtion was relativelly stable over the last 6
years or so, only the number of residential access subscribers grew.

Over the years to come, we'll still see some regions with a growing
number of individual accesses while the well-connected regions will
see their BW consumption grow even larger with new services. Isn't it
what FTTH deployments all around the world are all about ?

Jérôme Nicolle

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