"2M today, 10M with no change in technology"? An informal survey.

Deepak Jain deepak at ai.net
Thu Aug 30 18:10:03 UTC 2007

bmanning at vacation.karoshi.com wrote:
> On Wed, Aug 29, 2007 at 06:48:43PM -0400, Jon Lewis wrote:
>> On Mon, 27 Aug 2007, David Conrad wrote:
>>> For a few more months.  What are upgrade cycles like again?  How common 
>>> are the MSFC2s?
>> I think we'll find out in a few months, when the "internet breaks" in a 
>> whole bunch of places where the admins aren't aware of this issue or 
>> operations have been downsized to the point that things are mostly on 
>> auto-pilot.  I'm guessing there are a good number of Sup2's in use, and 
>> that a good % of them think they're fine...as they have 512MB RAM and on 
>> the software based routers, that's plenty for current full BGP routes.
> 	private replies suggest (w/ lots of handwaving) that perhaps 20-35%
> 	of the forwarding engines in use might fit this catagory.
>> Anyone want to bet there will be people posting to nanog and cisco-nsp in 
>> a few months asking why either the CPU load on their Sup2's has suddenly 
>> shot up or why they keep noticing parts of the internet have gone 
>> unreachable?...oblivious to this thread.
> 	that would be a sucker bet

If Cisco could ship enough units when asked, I'd say their next couple 
of quarters are in the bag... but since they have such huge lead 
times..... well, I am guessing a lot of people will start considering 
taking partial routes.

Transit providers would do well to have a distribute-list or similar 
configured to offer these guys when they call rather than trying to 
engineer something on an ICB basis.


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