misunderstanding scale (was: Ipv4 end, its fake.)

Sat Mar 22 16:58:41 UTC 2014

On Sat, 22 Mar 2014, William Herrin wrote:

> That's what I hear. Interesting thing though: it hasn't happened yet.
> IANA ran out of /8's and it didn't happen. The RIRs dropped to
> high-conservation mode on their final allocations and it didn't
> happen. How could that be?

I never said that things would get bad the instant that IANA ran out of 
space or your friendly neighborhood RIR reached the trigger point for 
their IPv4 exhaustion plans.  Different RIRs have different consumption 
rates.

There are also different pain points for different networks.  A large .edu 
that has a big enough chunk of legacy IPv4 space to meet their needs 
for the next several years is in a different place than a large eyeball 
network that is deploying LSN/CGN to stretch what they have left because 
they can't go back to the well to get more.  A large content/hosting 
provider who has customers that have different Internet reachability 
requirements where LSN/CGN doesn't help much has yet another different set 
of business drivers and pain points.

> In completely unrelated news, placard-bearing lunatics on the streets
> of New York City report that The End Is Nigh... for most of the last
> century.

I put my sandwich board away a long time ago.  I'm too busy working on 
deploying IPv6 ;)

jms