"2M today, 10M with no change in technology"? An informal survey.

Thu Aug 30 04:47:57 UTC 2007

On Wed, Aug 29, 2007 at 06:48:43PM -0400, Jon Lewis wrote:
> 
> On Mon, 27 Aug 2007, David Conrad wrote:
> 
> >For a few more months.  What are upgrade cycles like again?  How common 
> >are the MSFC2s?
> 
> I think we'll find out in a few months, when the "internet breaks" in a 
> whole bunch of places where the admins aren't aware of this issue or 
> operations have been downsized to the point that things are mostly on 
> auto-pilot.  I'm guessing there are a good number of Sup2's in use, and 
> that a good % of them think they're fine...as they have 512MB RAM and on 
> the software based routers, that's plenty for current full BGP routes.

	private replies suggest (w/ lots of handwaving) that perhaps 20-35%
	of the forwarding engines in use might fit this catagory.

> Anyone want to bet there will be people posting to nanog and cisco-nsp in 
> a few months asking why either the CPU load on their Sup2's has suddenly 
> shot up or why they keep noticing parts of the internet have gone 
> unreachable?...oblivious to this thread.

	that would be a sucker bet

> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>  Jon Lewis                   |  I route

--bill