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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Exponential growth under the limited resource<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Always finish by collapse.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Some resources are always limited in nature.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Smith’s joke from the “Matrix” (about modeling humans as a virus) is only partially a joke.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Whenever somebody talks about “exponent” – be alarmed – it would end in a very bad way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">The biggest one in the history of mankind was around 1200 b.c. Tin for Bronze has been finished, Bronze was the basement of the civilization.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">It is the famous “Bronze Age collapse” that cut the population 100x, and civilization lost writing capability for a few hundreds of years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Recovered by mastering Iron instead of Bronze. Iron is many thousands of times more available on Earth (in every swamp).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Tens of smaller collapses are traceable in human history.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Well, Roma's empire collapse was probably not so small, but smaller than the “Bronze Age collapse”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">The oldest is probably from humans in Australia, they have eaten all big animals and destroyed all forests, then depopulate and lose the basic tools (like arrows).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">A very similar story that did happen for Easter Island, just on the island all become dead.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">We are at the inflection point of the current exponent.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Natural resource energy production already declining for a couple of years (small decline yet) – carbon-hydrogen-based natural resources are limited.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">If a replacement for the current energy source would not be found<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Then the anticipated civilization collapse would become the biggest in history: 1000x depopulations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Nile river is capable to feed 1M of people using only muscles, not 120M. And so on everywhere in the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">The transition period in collapse would bypass possible optimal under the new conditions (cut more people).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">“Dark ages” are possible and happened in history many times. Don’t be too optimistic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">People could start eating each other instead of “Lunch on the Moon”. It is possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Fortunately, not mandatory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">PS: Canned energy from China (solar panels, wind turbines) is produced from coal. It is not a solution when coal would finish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Moreover, energy return from such types of “green energy” is worse than direct electricity generation from coal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">It is popular just because dust is left in China. Others have “green”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">A closed nuclear fuel cycle is the only available solution (gives the next exponent that could last 5k years if Thorium is involved).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">The ordinary nuclear reaction could prolong humans' agony only for 60 years (Uranium 235 is limited).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Nuclear fusion looks like fiction yet: the best story for money wastage, already 3 generations of scientists have made their careers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Ed/<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces+vasilenko.eduard=huawei.com@nanog.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Etienne-Victor Depasquale via NANOG<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, August 10, 2022 9:19 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Chris Wright <chris.wright@commnetbroadband.com><br>
<b>Cc:</b> NANOG <nanog@nanog.org><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: IoT - The end of the internet<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> because our lizard brains have a hard time comprehending exponential growth<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Don't forget how we pontificate on how well we understand infinity.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Cheers,<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Etienne <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Wed, Aug 10, 2022 at 6:09 PM Chris Wright <<a href="mailto:chris.wright@commnetbroadband.com">chris.wright@commnetbroadband.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">That’s just humans in general, and it certainly isn’t limited to our outlook on the future of the internet. Big advancements will always take us by surprise because our lizard brains
have a hard time comprehending exponential growth. Someone please stop me here before I get on my Battery-EV soapbox. :D<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Chris<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>From:</b> NANOG <nanog-bounces+chris.wright=<a href="mailto:commnetbroadband.com@nanog.org" target="_blank">commnetbroadband.com@nanog.org</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Tom Beecher<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, August 10, 2022 9:25 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Christopher Wolff <<a href="mailto:chris@vergeinternet.com" target="_blank">chris@vergeinternet.com</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> NANOG <<a href="mailto:nanog@nanog.org" target="_blank">nanog@nanog.org</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: IoT - The end of the internet<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">It always amazes me how an industry that has , since its inception, been constantly solving new problems to make things work, always finds a way to assume the next problem will
be unsolvable. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">On Tue, Aug 9, 2022 at 10:23 PM Christopher Wolff <<a href="mailto:chris@vergeinternet.com" target="_blank">chris@vergeinternet.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt">Hi folks,<br>
<br>
Has anyone proposed that the adoption of billions of IoT devices will ultimately ‘break’ the Internet?
<br>
<br>
It’s not a rhetorical question I promise, just looking for a journal or other scholarly article that implies that the Internet is doomed.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-- <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#888888">Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale<br>
Assistant Lecturer<br>
Department of Communications & Computer Engineering<br>
Faculty of Information & Communication Technology<br>
University of Malta</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Web. <a href="https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale" target="_blank">https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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