<html><head><style type='text/css'>p { margin: 0; }</style></head><body><div style='font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; color: #000000'>For something "future-proof" you have to run fiber. Rural fiber would cost $5 - $10/ft. That's $26k - $52k per mile. Most rural roads around here have 2 - 3 houses per mile. I'm sure the more rural you go, the less you have. That's one hell of an install cost per home passed.<div><br></div><div>Failing that, you go to WISPs and LEO. In the uber rural areas, LEO is the only thing that makes sense. In the middle areas, WISPs are and will be the only viable option. There's limited available spectrum. It doesn't help when the FCC neuters WISP-friendly (well, really, friendly to any organization not a mobile wireless provider) auctions to make it more friendly to the mobile guys. Then, they made all of the other middle-band auctions effectively exclusive to mobile wireless plays. Shows how much they cared about making broadband available to people.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>WISPs *CAN* deliver 100/20 (or better) service in LOS (line of sight) environments. In foliage-heavy environments, WISPs won't fare as good, but then neither will LEO. All that can get those kinds of speeds into foliage-heavy environments is geostationary (with appropriate usage of chainsaws) and cables of some kind. Obviously, current consumer geostationary can't do those kinds of speeds, but that's oversubscription.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>So for a WISP or for LEO, you're looking at $500/home for costs (well, Starlink's raw costs are much higher, but that's what they charge per sub. WISPs don't charge that much per sub for an install cost, but that's likely to be more representative of the all-in cost for a high-capacity, scalable system). Compare that to the $10k - $20k per home for rural fiber.</div><div><br></div><div>Requiring a 100 meg upload really changes up the dynamics of the WISP capabilities, resulting in fiber-only at a cost increase of 20x - 40x... for something that isn't needed.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>My performance assumptions are based on households, as that's how people exist. Recall my earlier usage information compared to the number of people and usage habits on my Internet connection. I just counted 75 devices in my regular "Internet" VLAN. That's excluding anyone on the guest WiFi, excluding the cameras VLAN, and I'll admit that I got lazy on my IOT VLAN and that most of those devices are on my regular Internet VLAN. I'm not trying to brag as I know some of you will have more. My point was that I'm not out of touch with how many devices people have.<br><br>Game consoles? Not much there for upload. Yes, they'll occasionally have big downloads (and getting bigger every day). Same with OS updates. They happen, but not every day.</div><div>Cloud backups? Once the initial seed is done, cloud backups are pretty small. All of my mobile devices backup to multiple cloud services (I think three).</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>I think the IEEE has taken *FAR* too long to push transmit synchronization into the WiFi standard. AX has a little bit of it, but it's not a requirement. I envision a world where the ISP pushes timing out via something *like* 1588 that then causes all of their subscriber's APs to transmit at the same time, greatly reducing interference potential. It's the only way to scale outdoor fixed wireless. Why can't WiFi do that too?</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>As has been said multiple times, fixing in-home WiFi would do more for people's QOE than moving their upload from 20 megs to 100 megs.<br><br><div><span name="x"></span><br><br>-----<br>Mike Hammett<br>Intelligent Computing Solutions<br>http://www.ics-il.com<br><br>Midwest-IX<br>http://www.midwest-ix.com<span name="x"></span><br></div><br><hr id="zwchr"><div style="color:#000;font-weight:normal;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;"><b>From: </b>"Jim Troutman" <jamesltroutman@gmail.com><br><b>To: </b>"Mike Hammett" <nanog@ics-il.net><br><b>Cc: </b>"Christopher Morrow" <morrowc.lists@gmail.com>, "nanog list" <nanog@nanog.org><br><b>Sent: </b>Tuesday, June 1, 2021 1:36:13 PM<br><b>Subject: </b>Re: New minimum speed for US broadband connections<br><br><div style="background-color:!important"><div dir="auto">Mike,</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I know you have a lot of experience in this. </div><div dir="auto"><span style="border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)">I have built several networks and owned ISPs, too. </span><br></div><div dir="auto"><span style="border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></span></div><div dir="auto">How is it really all that more expensive to offer higher Internet speeds?</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The cost of the Internet bits per subscriber ceased being a major consideration in most budgets about 10 years ago. Staffing, trucks, billing and rents cost far more. I’m way more upset about having to hire another FTE or buy a truck then having to add another transit or peering port. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Oh, wait, if you are still using last century technology to deliver last the last mile, I can see the problem. You cannot get enough bits to the subscriber without a large investment to replace the last mile. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><span style="border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)">Most customers WILL notice a difference between a 10mbit and 1Gig connection day to day. </span><br></div><div dir="auto"><span style="border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></span></div><div dir="auto">Your performance assumptions seem to be based on there is only ever being a single traffic flow over that connection, from a single endpoint. <br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Typical subscriber usage isn’t anything remotely like that anymore. It is several to dozens of devices and usually every resident using bandwidth simultaneously when they are home. Plus all the background downloads of smartphone updates, massive content updates on all the game consoles, operating system updates, all those cloud backups, plus IoT devices like cameras with cloud DVRs. <br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">You may not like all these devices and we can debate their usefulness, but the fact is, consumers are buying them and using them, and when things don’t work well, the belief is “‘my ISP sucks”, even if that isn’t entirely true. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto" style="background-color:!important"><span style="background-color:">My strongly held opinion is that fiber </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">optic cable to the premises is the best and only long term viable technology for “Broadband”</span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">, with 30 years or more projected life span. Everyone who has grid tied electrical service should get to have fiber if they want it. </span></div><div dir="auto" style="background-color:"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></span></div><div dir="auto" style="background-color:"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">I also believe that ISPs need to manage the customer’s WiFi most of the time, because it is a is huge part of the end-user’s quality of experience. WiFi 6E will go a long way towards reducing interference and channel congestion and making “auto channel” actually work, but will still be another 2-3 years before it is really common. </span></div><div dir="auto" style="background-color:"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></span></div><div dir="auto" style="background-color:"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Fiber optic networks operated in a competent way are always going to win compared to any other technology. It is just a matter of time. </span></div></div><div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Jun 1, 2021 at 1:34 PM Mike Hammett <<a href="mailto:nanog@ics-il.net" target="_blank">nanog@ics-il.net</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)"><div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">"Why is 100/100 seen as problematic to the industry players?"</span></font></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></font></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">In rural settings, it's low density, so you're spending a bunch of money with a low probability of getting any return. Also, a low probability that the customer cares.</span></font></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></font></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></font></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">"</span></font><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">There's an underlying, I think, assumption that people won't use access speed/bandwidth that keeps coming up."</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">On a 95th% basis, no, they don't use it.</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">On shorter time spans, sure. Does it really matter, though? If I can put a 100 meg file into Dropbox in under a second versus 10 seconds, does that really matter? If Netflix gets my form submission in 0.01 seconds instead of .1 seconds, does it matter?</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">I think you'll find few to argue against "faster is better." The argument is at what price? At what perceived benefit?</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">Show me an average end-user that can tell the difference between a 10 meg upload and a 1 gig upload, aside from media-heavy professionals or the one-time full backup of a phone, PC, etc. Okay, show me two of them, ten of them...</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">99% of the end-users I know can't tell the difference in any amount of speed above 5 megs. It then just either works or doesn't work.</span></div><br><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"></span><br><br>-----<br>Mike Hammett<br>Intelligent Computing Solutions<br><a href="http://www.ics-il.com" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif" target="_blank">http://www.ics-il.com</a><br><br>Midwest-IX<br><a href="http://www.midwest-ix.com" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif" target="_blank">http://www.midwest-ix.com</a><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"></span><br></div><br><hr id="m_6037674886804755187m_5159341478970187514zwchr" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;font-weight:normal;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><b style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">From: </b>"Christopher Morrow" <<a href="mailto:morrowc.lists@gmail.com" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif" target="_blank">morrowc.lists@gmail.com</a>><br><b style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">To: </b>"Mike Hammett" <<a href="mailto:nanog@ics-il.net" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif" target="_blank">nanog@ics-il.net</a>><br><b style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">Cc: </b><a href="mailto:aaron1@gvtc.com" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif" target="_blank">aaron1@gvtc.com</a>, "nanog list" <<a href="mailto:nanog@nanog.org" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif" target="_blank">nanog@nanog.org</a>><br><b style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">Sent: </b>Tuesday, June 1, 2021 12:14:43 PM<br><b style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">Subject: </b>Re: New minimum speed for US broadband connections</div></div></div><div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;font-weight:normal;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br><br><div dir="ltr" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="ltr" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">On Tue, Jun 1, 2021 at 12:44 PM Mike Hammett <<a href="mailto:nanog@ics-il.net" style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif" target="_blank">nanog@ics-il.net</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)"><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)">That is true, but if no one uses it, is it really gone?<br><br><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div></div></div></blockquote><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><br></div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">There's an underlying, I think, assumption that people won't use access speed/bandwidth that keeps coming up.</div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">I don't think this is an accurate assumption. I don't think it's really ever been accurate.</div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><br></div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">There are a bunch of examples in this thread of reasons why 'more than X' is a good thing for the end-user, and that average usage over time is a bad metric to use in the discussion. At the very least the ability to get around/out-of serialization delays and microburst behavior is beneficial to the end-user.</div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><br></div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">Maybe the question that's not asked (but should be) is:<br> "Why is 100/100 seen as problematic to the industry players?"</div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"> </div><div style="font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><br></div></div></div>
</div><br></div></div></blockquote></div></div>
</div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Jim Troutman,<br></div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><a href="mailto:jamesltroutman@gmail.com" target="_blank">jamesltroutman@gmail.com</a></div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><div><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">Pronouns: he/him/his</span><br></div>207-514-5676 (cell)</div></div></div></div></div>
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