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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/Apr/20 21:46, Owen DeLong wrote:<br>
<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
I don’t pretend to have a global view. I have my own perspective. I do my best
to understand perspectives of others. Claiming to be able to speak from a global
view is beyond my abilities. I am truly impressed that you are able to do so.
Please teach me how to develop such a perspective.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
There was a time when having a different mobile phone was the thing.
The smaller, the better.<br>
<br>
Then there came a time when running a different OS on your phone was
a thing. Symbian or Windows Mobile or BlackBerry.<br>
<br>
Then came smartphones in 2007, and owning an iPhone was a thing.<br>
<br>
Then there was a time when having certain apps was a thing.<br>
<br>
Then Samsung and Google hit the scene and owning one was a thing.<br>
<br>
Then there was a time when having a certain version of Android was a
thing.<br>
<br>
In 2020, nobody cares what phone you have, how large or small it is,
what apps you have or use, or how long your battery lasts. In this
hyper-connected world, all most people care about is utility and
value.<br>
<br>
If 2 billion people of God's green earth can all coalesce around
Facebook and WhatsApp, how different are we, really?<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Yes, but the solution to that is education.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
In this new economy, the concept of how the kids learn is changing
fast. While we want to force many of them to follow the traditional
schooling system we all went through, I'm not sure that's the right
approach anymore. Information is a commodity now, and the kids will
learn the way they want to, formal schooling or not.<br>
<br>
So yes, education is certainly how you fix this. But how do you
effectively get that message across to a set of people who will only
tune into what they like, when they like, and find all your rules
boring and overbearing?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Not so sure about that. I think that GDPR and similar legislation sweeping through
the world is an indication that more and more people are becoming aware of the
issue, even if the tide is not yet turning against the surveillance economy.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
When this lockdown is over, I'll randomly ask the kids, street
vendors and taxi drivers what GDPR is. <br>
<br>
I'll let you know what I find :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Only among the weakest-minded parents.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
The world is a diverse place.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Actually, it makes me rethink whether the child should be using Twitch at all.
When my child cries her lungs out because she’s deprived of some app or
connectivity for some period of time, the result is that she loses access to
that item for a significantly longer period of time. It only took a few instances
of this for her behavior to shift from temper tantrum to negotiation.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Good man.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Keeping my child connected is absolutely NOT a factor in an automotive
purchase decision in my household. It’s a byproduct of keeping me and/or
my wife connected, if it is a consideration at all. (So far, not).</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Good for you, and the Mrs.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Mobility services, again, focus is the needs of the adults in this area. The
child has a wifi-only iPad and a bare-bones unlimited plan on her mobile
that comes with 2GB of LTE high speed data per month and drops to 128k
after she burns through that (usually in the first 5 days of the billing cycle,
though she is getting better about rationing it and paying attention to when
she’s using mobile data vs. wifi.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I'm delaying all that for as long as I can.<br>
<br>
For the moment, they are reasonably sociable human beings, whose
first words when they enter someone else's home aren't, "What's the
wi-fi?" <br>
<br>
I'll enjoy these moments. This hyper-connected world is only going
to get worse.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
IMHO, if parents are catering to a greater level of screen addiction in their
kids, they’re not teaching their kids a variety of important life skills.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
True story.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">I’m not as convinced of this as you are, but time will tell.
There is definitely behavior in evidence that aligns with your statements. However,
there is less evidence to support your conclusions of the reasons behind that
behavior.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I like studies and papers and all that, but I also have a healthy
dose of 1+1. <br>
<br>
I'm not always right (if ever), but I don't strive to be. I'm just
observing my surroundings.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
LOL
My daughter has a phone. She’s 11. She’s had a phone since she was 7.
However, she has that phone for the convenience of the adults. It provides
an easy way to track her whereabouts and an easy way for us to get in
touch with her to coordinate things. Any other benefit she derives from
the phone are “privileges” subject to restriction (her phone has parental
management on and most of the settings are locked down. She cannot
install new apps without specific permission (enforced via the app store)
and she has a very limited set of apps on the phone.). The web browser
is disabled on her phone. She’s required to put it in “airplane” mode
before school each day and take it out of “airplane” mode when she
leaves school each day.
Again, not because she wanted a phone, but for the convenience of the
adults in the household.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Growing up, we waited for our folks to come pick us up from school.
Sometimes, when they were late, they found us crying, and that was a
guaranteed slap across the face. We stopped crying for them being
late after that.<br>
<br>
For my kids, their school has a phone booth. They know our phone
numbers by heart. We give them a calling card. Else, we'll pick them
up from school when it closes for the day, or receive a call from
their teacher or principle as to an emergency. If they are not at
school but also not at home, they are with us.<br>
<br>
We bought them cheap tablets (those no-name brand ones that run some
dodgy version of Android) which we lock up for the entire week of
school and only release to them after class on Friday evening. They
will enjoy that for the weekend and return them on Sunday night.
Rinse, repeat, until the school holidays.<br>
<br>
Obviously, they know their way around the Internet more than I or
the wife probably do, but we can all enjoy 5 days of them not
staring at a screen, unless it's 25 minutes in the evening for all
of us to catch the day's local soap episode on the tube :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Not at all. I believe that a higher percentage (3-5% or so) of the adult population
understand and actively try to avoid surveillance vs. the 4-5 year old population
(close to 0% even know the word surveillance).</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Mostly agree - I think the adult % is lower than that, if you
consider "adult" in this hyper-connected age is anyone over 13.<br>
<br>
Certainly, many adults are concerned about privacy, especially of
their kids being online (whether they can actually control it or not
is an entirely different matter). However, I'm not so sure they are
as vigilant when it comes to themselves.<br>
<br>
As part of my DJ'ing thing, I am now holding shows online, streaming
to Youtube and what-not. I installed an app to turn my phone into a
1080p camera... cheaper than buying a new web cam or trying to turn
my idiotic Go Pro camera into a sensible digital device. This app
won't allow me to use until I give it permission to access both my
camera and microphone, even though I only need the former. Fair
point, you can disable the mic in the software once it's loaded, but
you can't open the app if you take away its ability to reach the
microphone as a base rule.<br>
<br>
Plenty of social apps used by several adults behave in this way. For
those that are configurable, it's too much admin. for folk, and they
simply trust the app's author to "have their best interests at
heart". And as I said before, people will give your app one try,
maybe two. If it's too complicated, they move on, and part of that
includes them tapping every little dialog box that says, "Agree and
Continue".<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Yep… As I said, 95-97% of adults are in this camp. But I bet it’s closer to 100%
of the 4-5 year olds, given the chance.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
You're generous on the adults, but agree re: the kids :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Actually, I appreciate the way Apple has done this. They specifically don’t use
your data, they just transport it. They encrypt it so that even they can’t see it.
Google, OTOH, not so much.
iCloud is the opposite of what I am railing against. It’s rather well implemented
and does contain strong privacy protections. So much so that it has frustrated
multiple governments.
Subpoena — Give us user X’s data.
Apple — Well, we can give you the encrypted stuff we have, but we don’t
have the key, so good luck with it.
Government — Decrypt it for us.
Apple — We don’t have the key, we can’t do that.
Government — Install a back door.
Apple — Uh, no.
This almost went to a US test case after the shooting in San Bernardino in 2016.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI–Apple_encryption_dispute">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI–Apple_encryption_dispute</a>
Though that was an iPhone and not iCloud, it showed Apple’s commitment to
getting this right. The only reason it didn’t become a test case was because the
FBI found a third party that hacked the phone for them (the vulnerability
they exploited was limited to older phones, Apple hardware of the time could
not be broken this way).
It’s not clear how the case would turn out or what Apple would do if they lost.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I largely agree with how Apple (advertise that they) protect
privacy. But my point wasn't that or to pick on them. My point was
very few of us will actually check to verify that the privacy claims
being advanced by a service provider or vendor are actually true.
Most people will blindly assume that the provider has their best
interests at heart, has thought about it all, and that they can take
them at their word for it. After all, they are a big name brand with
a globally-recognized company logo and service, surely they did they
checked all the boxes before pushing out this app/service, right?<br>
<br>
Most folk will go after the convenience, because in that
convenience, they perceive value, and the providers know how to keep
that value coming to them to retain their patronage.<br>
<br>
You, me and the rest of the folk on the list will be a little bit
more discerning, a lot less trusting, and generally always
suspicious. But that's about what, +/-10,000 people in a sea of
billions? More, obviously, but you know what I mean.<br>
<br>
And corporations aren't trying to "unhook" eyeballs from this
paradigm, because that's what brings the money in. Heck, I wouldn't
mind a piece of the action myself :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Well, $CABLECO is also $ISP and $ISP+$CABLE < $ISP alone in this
weird world of perverse economic incentives, even after accounting
for that annoying unnecessary charge.
I’d love to switch to a different $ISP, but unfortunately, the choices here are
Comcast ($CABLECO) CMTS and AT&T ($TELCO) DSL. I get 200M/5M
from $CABLECO. The best $TELCO can do is 1.5M/384k (on a good day
when it’s dry outside).
As such, I’m kind of stuck.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I hear you. It's kind of crazy, actually, isn't it :-).<br>
<br>
I've found you get a lot more flexibility in plenty of countries
around the world you, ordinarily, would not expect, if you use the
U.S. as an economic gold standard :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Oh, gender roles remain much more traditional in Africa and to some extent in
Asia than in the North America, Europe, and Australia, no question about that
based on my observations in fairly wide travel.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
No, it's not that.<br>
<br>
Rwanda has over 60% of women in gubbermint. Namibia is just over
46%. South Africa is at about 43%. Worldwide, that's #1, #6 and #10,
respectively. In that top 10 list, the only European country that
features is Sweden, at #7. Mexico is at #4 with just under 50%, and
represents all of North America. Don't even know where Australia
ranks.<br>
<br>
My point is, culturally, while gender roles may be alive and well in
Africa, Asia-Pac and Latin America, women in these countries have
the same level of access to programming as their fellow men do. They
just have significantly less interest in it.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">I don’t have data to support this, but it seems to apply equally well to at
least Football and Baseball. Less so to the gear-head sports, but the
female audience for those seemed to be growing there too.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I'll spend some time observing this more. Fascinating...<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Ford had to be ordered to do so. First reasonable EO to come from the Orange
Idiot. (though he resisted doing it as long as he could)</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
:-)... no one is immune, not even Orange.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Perhaps. The question remains whether that will result in long term economic
viability.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, as with pretty much any business in 2020 that needs the
Internet to support not only its growth, but its survival,
straight-up "Here's a service, pay me money", is not going to be a
viable model for most anymore. <br>
<br>
The model now is: acquire the user, retain the user, use data
provided by (or learned from) the user to make the actual money.
Then retain that user further so that if the initial reason you
acquired them is no longer working, pivot that to something else
(e.g., you stop selling books and move into online retail + cloud
computing) to keep them so you can keep using their data to keep
making the actual money.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Not really. Online games are relatively low bandwidth compared to streaming
video.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
At APRICOT this year, we had a paper that an author had submitted
about the rise in game watching, i.e., kids that watch other kids
playing games. Unfortunately, due to the Coronavirus and all that,
he wasn't able to make it to Melbourne to give the talk. But it
opened my eyes to what I was already seeing at home and in the
general gaming community in South Africa. Twitch, UStream,
Smashcast.tv, Youtube Gaming, Periscope, e.t.c., are starting to
play their part in increasing the rise in online video traffic. <br>
<br>
The preso would have shown that in 2020, online gaming and game
watching will be a US$170 billion business, growing to just under
US$200 billion in 2022, with Asia-Pac leading that charge at nearly
50% of the market.<br>
<br>
So while we try to figure out whether Netflix, Disney+ and friends
need to throttle back on video resolution in order to "save the
Internet", I expect that by the end of this decade, we shall have
had to engineer for a major rise in online game watching, as it
appears that more kids watch others playing games online than
actually play games themselves. Nothing special, it will just be
more video - but not from the current usual crop.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Of course the live streaming of video of online game contests could be a different
matter, but I suspect that if the network becomes an issue there, they’ll simply
develop “watch-only” clients for the games in question that take the same stream
from the play server as any other game client. At that point, it’s a low-bandwidth
thing again.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
No, my focus is more on watching of games, live or post-event, not
actually playing them. Turns out that ratio isn't 1:1 - more kids
spend plenty of time watching games that were played in the past,
than playing them. Especially those who don't have very advanced
gaming rigs, or restrictive game-playing hours.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Now if you’re still operating a high latency or worse, a high-jitter network, then
you’ll have some issues you’ll need to address as games are very sensitive
to both latency and jitter, but that’s a solved problem in most of the developed
world already.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
It's the usual - get the game servers closer to the eyeballs, just
as we did with other web traffic and CDN's.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Uh, no. First, no airline (at least in the US) is buying their bread from some
local bakery. Second, the bakeries in shopping centers aren’t suffering
from on-line sales because people want their baked goods fresh, not
via overnight fedex. In fact, the proliferation of new bakeries that
was happening prior to COVID clearly indicates otherwise. At least here
in the US, people like their fresh baked goods and are willing to pay
for them in person.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
My point was every supplier has a supplier, and when supplies run
low, they call on everyone. So while the little bakery down the road
does not supply the airline directly, they probably support the
company that supports the company that supports the company that
does.<br>
<br>
Re: the mad-buying rush, same here, as with everywhere else I'm
sure. The moment the prez announced the lockdown (3 days ahead of
it), the panic-buying started. I've never seen more cars or people
in one place at the same time. The worst was the day before the
lockdown; you'd think we'd just been told Earth was relocating to
another solar system and everyone wanted to make sure the ride would
be filled with food, beer, toilet paper and hand sanitizer :-). But
that's just a lapse back into human nature, and our intrinsic need
for basic survival and preservation.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Sure… But really, I don’t think that’s permanent and most people that have
gym memberships are paying for them on autopilot and don’t think to
cancel even if they aren’t using it. Why do you think gyms never raise
their prices on old memberships? They don’t want to do anything to
remind that customer that’s paying and not using about that fact.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
People that actively move from physical to online gyms will cancel
their memberships. The rest that visit the gym 3 out of 36 times
that they should be just "feel good" that the membership is there.
All it takes is a kid with a 360-degree idea about getting rid of
that membership and "getting results" from home, to flip the entire
gym model on its head.<br>
<br>
And that's what I've been saying all along - the traditional gym
model works, but they'd do well to adapt to the new economy while
they still can, before they realize Uber came and stole their taxi
rides right form underneath their sweaty palms :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Sure, but that’s been the case since before the industrial revolution.</pre>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
There’s nothing new about this from of economic evolution.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
The industrial revolution was a major shift from the way economies
were operated prior to it.<br>
<br>
Yes, the industrial revolution has given us technology and the
Internet, and much of it still depends on it. But make no mistake,
the industrial era, as a model for the future at scale, is pretty
much dead. We are now in a digital era, where information is
commoditized and everyone is hyper-connected to receive it all, good
and bad.<br>
<br>
The industrial revolution focused on roles. The digital era wants
impact.<br>
<br>
The industrial revolution focused on expertise. The digital era
wants continuous learning.<br>
<br>
The industrial revolution focused on profit. The digital era wants
care and compassion.<br>
<br>
The industrial revolution focused on giving instructions. The
digital era calls for asking questions.<br>
<br>
The industrial revolution focused on knowledge. The digital era
wants us to be curious.<br>
<br>
The industrial revolution set static goals for us to achieve (job,
house, car, spouse, children, wealth, legacy). The digital era wants
us to find purpose.<br>
<br>
It's going to hit. And it's going to hit hard! I mean, you are
seeing it already with the Coronavirus, which has only amplified and
accelerated the above.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">There are still various moves afoot to try and cause additional regulatory
burden and/or legislative difficulty for the app-based ride-shares and
the so-called gig-economy.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
It won't work, because for the kids, Command & Control is gone.
You can't force them to use a service or system from which they do
not derive value. One try, maybe two, and if they don't like your
app, it's gone. Simple.<br>
<br>
And more importantly, your customers are no longer just the folk
that walk into your store from up the road. They are anyone,
anywhere, in the world, with an Internet connection.<br>
<br>
The Internet never had geographic boundaries. In the digital era,
this is much more obvious.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Then if you really want to go through the looking glass, we’ve now got
a president claiming that Amazon is “abusing the postal system” by being
one of its largest customers.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
And like all clever companies that think on their feet and pivot
their model to adapt to the changing times in this digital era, what
do Amazon do? Not fight, or try to take on Orange; they instead
create their own form of "Uber" for deliveries (many of whom were
former Amazon floor staff), and build an airline to ship goods.
Simple.<br>
<br>
Adapt or die. Especially if you still have the money and time to do
so. I have no sympathy for anyone that tries to stay in business
through legislation.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Nobody is ever safe, economically speaking.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Yes, but as your body needs external nutrients daily to survive, you
have to do whatever you can to improve your chances of economic
survival - because even if we suddenly came to all of our senses and
stopped aspiring to amassing as much money as we can in lieu of
purpose, there will still be an economy, of some sort or other.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">My favorite version of this was the real estate investor that tried to explain
to me that now that we had virtual servers, the next step would be to virtualize
the datacenter and eliminate physical infrastructure altogether. I wished him
the best of luck with that plan and walked away shaking my head.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
You should have offered him a seat on the B737-MAX to go visit the
construction site on Cloud Nine, while you were at it :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Yes… The trick here is consumer education and regulation that requires
fully informed consent by the consumer willing to become the product.
The reason these meet with such high success today is that most consumers
don’t realize they’re becoming a product.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
And to be honest, many don't want to know.<br>
<br>
Haven't you noticed that the first networks a new peer on an
exchange point wants to have eBGP sessions with are always the same
4 or 5. The world over? And that they will fall (not bend) over
backwards seeing to those sessions coming up like their entire
network and business depended on them? Heck, they'd sign away their
grandmother in a heartbeat for those eBGP sessions.<br>
<br>
Most folk don't want to know. They are just after obtaining their
value.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Sure… But at the end of the day, someone still needs to deploy that
infrastructure. Hopefully it will be a few years yet before that degrades
salaries too far. Hopefully in about 15 years, I won’t care.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, in 15 years when you don't care, there are others, our kids,
who will. What are we leaving behind for them?<br>
<br>
Many CxO's of many companies that are going to die because they
refuse to adapt, are only sticking around to milk those companies
until they have enough stashed away to say, "Right, I'm done. Time
for someone else to sink this ship". They all already see the
decline. They already see the new economy chipping at their heels.
They just don't have the DNA or the culture to make the shift. For
those, I have no sympathies, especially if you are wise to what's
coming.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Sure, this is every day news regardless of industry.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, mobile businesses have been cash cows for years. All they had
to do is sit at a desk, design swanky ads, find clever ways to sell
the same Megabyte of data 50 times to the same person, and watch the
ATM print money.<br>
<br>
Well, voice and SMS died, and Data growth is putting pressure on the
P&L. Even when they made 110% margin back in the day, and are
probably still at a healthy 40% margin in 2020, that's a big dip.
And rather than find a way to pivot their business into one that
offers value (connectivity is not value; what's at the end of it
is), it's easier for them to do the usual - cut salaries, cut jobs,
and save cash all the way into profitability.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Did you ever see the movie “Wall Street”?</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Yep, both of them :-).<br>
<br>
It'll all come to a head. I mean, it's not like it hasn't happened
before - 2000, 2008, 2010 and now again in 2020. <br>
<br>
They never learn.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
That wasn’t about how large they are, but about how diverse they are.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I'm sure you know what I meant :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">That’s why I mentioned the specific ones that were global even before
they were acquired by Disney. Disney’s been on a crazy buying binge
ever since they got rid of Eisner (AKA Lord Farquaad and thank
goodness he’s gone).
A lot of their purchases have been aimed at expanding their international
capability.
That was my point. Domestically, they’ve been a very effective executor.
Internationally, it’s just a matter of time and acquisitions before they find
the right mix. Their domestic performance and conservative cash management
has left them with a pretty strong war chest for international experimentation
until they get it right.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Domestically in the U.S. doesn't really interest me, because
everyone fighting over 330 million people (many of whom aren't
economically addressable) can only take you so far.<br>
<br>
It's how they execute globally that I am watching, and where I think
Netflix have done a fabulous job. I'm not saying they can't be
unseated. I'm just saying Disney will need to do a lot more than
"just show up".<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
I think this will eventually evolve over time. If Netflix shows stronger success,
then all they have to do to kneecap Netflix is start doing so.
Why take that risk when you can sit back and see what happens to the other
guy and make a later decision with very little cost and nothing at risk?</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Because in this new economy, you are in a better position if you
experiment when you have both the time and the cash. You have just
about zero chance if you lose one or both of those attributes.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">But it’s a fleeting advantage and it’s not clear yet whether it’s an actual
advantage over-all.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I've seen it work in Africa and Asia-Pac, where folk who have never
been interested in VoD services suddenly sign-up (even if for the
free trial period) because of a show that spoke to them at a local,
personal level, in lieu of some production made in a country whose
language they can't speak.<br>
<br>
My boss' mother is pushing 80-something, and is an avid Netflix fan
because they have a huge catalog of content made for her country.
Before then, she couldn't be asked.<br>
<br>
The U.S. (apart from the Asians and Latinos) is mostly a single,
English-based culture. My guess is you'd have a lot of Asians and
Latinos watching plenty of related content on Netflix in the U.S.,
but that's just my 1+1, since I don't live there. This strategy is a
hit for Netflix, because outside of the U.S. and the UK, most other
countries have a diverse range of cultures within them, and English
hardly features, if at all.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Disney’s own CDN is wider spread than I think you realize, but that doesn’t
really matter… If you want to turn up a CDN overnight in a new territory,
then all that is really required is VPS providers in the territory and the
ability to deploy your CDN onto VPS. Disney definitely has both of those
things. Beyond that, it’s just a matter of clicking the GO button for each
territory you want to target. Then for places that show significant demand,
you can deploy actual infrastructure later as a cost reduction measure
to free you from the high cloud fees.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
That's my point - it's the usual "99% strategy 1% execution"
model... sit back, wait for demand, push the GO button.<br>
<br>
Since moving back to Africa in 2012, I spent about 5 years roaming
Europe and the U.S. trying to talk every CDN provider I could find
into building in Africa; and this was on the back of me doing all
the hard work (space, power, cooling, bandwidth, remote hands,
e.t.c.). All they had to do was put a warm body on the matter. Many
scoffed. The few that listened saw the vision, and put both their
feet in. Those are the ones sitting pretty right now, while all the
rest are 4 years too late and scrambling with VPS providers that
aren't always adequate.<br>
<br>
And yes, there is a reason Netflix are the #1 VoD provider in
Africa, much like the rest of the world.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Sure, but at this point, it remains to be seen how many cinemas will exist
post COVID-19.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Like I've been saying, many will die. They can blame it on the
Coronavirus all they want, but that was merely an accelerant, and an
amplifier.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Well, they already have the streaming capability for all of their “old” content,
so really, that’s just a matter of making the decision to release new content
through that mechanism. Of course it would also involve either adjustments
to their revenue expectations for that or to their current pricing models for
that service. Maybe something like Amazon Prime where some content is
free and other is available for an additional fee.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
And as they remain in that "just a matter of making the decision"
phase, they keep losing ground. <br>
<br>
It's the 99% world vs. the 1% world. <br>
<br>
99% execution, 1% strategy. Or as more dirty words would call it,
"Agility". <br>
<br>
Move away from % points, and think about philosophy. Some failure
and associated batteries included - but START!<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">I doubt that they will miss the boat entirely, but I think they’re watching CBS,
Netflix, and Amazon Prime to see which model wins before jumping all in
on digital.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, if anyone still thinks digital is the little brother to the
industrial revolution, they are already late to the party.<br>
<br>
Luckily for Hollywood, they have deep pockets. But as you can see
due to the Coronavirus, those pockets suddenly have a bottom when
your traditional model is taken for a spin in the new rocket:<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/movie-theater-owners-request-a-bailout-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/movie-theater-owners-request-a-bailout-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Yep. I expect this to be an increasing trend. Netflix put a big finger-in-the-eye
on the other studios when they simultaneously released the same feature in
theaters and on streaming.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
That's what I'm talking about... 99% execution, 1% strategy. <br>
<br>
Keep being agile, flip the game over and over and over; not only to
keep your competition guessing, but also your customers. Just like
in romantic love, customers who are always guessing, stay to find
out what's next. It's quite simple, really :-).<br>
<br>
The goal is to keep your customers sticking around. You don't make
money from empty seats.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
No doubt. Never said otherwise. I figured this conversation was more about
what would likely succeed vs. likely die as we move forward, not so much
about the extent to which everyone would suffer.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, that's also relevant, because many companies will suffer in
realizing they need to adapt to the new economy, and then survive.<br>
<br>
Yes, it will mean drastic changes to how the business is operated,
staffing, services, e.t.c. But the biggest changes will be the two
hardest ones to achieve:<br>
<ul>
<li>Leadership philosophy; advancing to a style of humility,
vulnerability, and most importantly, empathy.<br>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Culture philosophy; is your goal profit, or purpose?</li>
</ul>
<p>Notice none of the two points above speak to titles, roles,
experience, education, products, services, equipment,
infrastructure, money in the bank, size of the team, number of
Senior VP's, and all that stuff we've been raised to think is what
will chart businesses into this new economy. <br>
</p>
<p>The kids don't care if you're a famous CEO, a broke or wealthy
one, if you advertise for an hour on radio everyday, if you have a
fancy logo, if you are a Fortune 100 company, whether you have a
PhD, or any of that drivel. All they care about it is, "Does his
app work, do I like the service, am I willing to use it, does it
give me value".</p>
<p>The rest, these kids couldn't care less if you paid them.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
</pre>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Sure, but some are actually benefiting… Local grocers and warehouse stores
as an example. Panic buying, more restrictive return policies, hoarding have
all led to increased sales and reduced costs for them.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
And what is it that those businesses do? That's right, sell real
things. And what do real things do? Real things offer real value.<br>
<br>
People are always chasing value, in whatever form it comes. How it
comes is the execution. The point is, are you offering it either
way?<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Also, this probably isn’t something you’re used to,...</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Ummh, not sure what you mean...<br>
<br>
I mean, I'm healthy and all and rarely see the inside of a hospital,
but my house isn't far from three or four in my neighborhood alone,
so I can count the cars going in and out :-).<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap=""> but hospitals are also seeing
an increase in business in the US., as are urgent care clinics, testing labs,
etc. That’s all big business in the US.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
In South Africa, almost all the Coronavirus testing is happening at
private hospitals, for reasons I'm sure you can imagine.<br>
<br>
Even though those hospitals are benefiting, I don't see it that way.
In this country, the gubbermint have struck a deal with private
hospital to share beds as patients overflow. <br>
<br>
Money is useless if we are all dead.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
Impacted — Yes, but in some cases, positively impacted, not negative.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, that's a point of view. What good is money if the shop you
used to run down to to spend it has closed down because they can't
make rent, have had to lay off staff and are probably losing their
home?<br>
<br>
It's a cycle - if one person loses out, many will. Having money in
isolation is like being on an island by yourself with a case of
hundred-dollar bills and gold. And that's why during this pandemic,
even if plenty of private companies will "make money", it will only
be useful if gubbermints dig deep into those coffers and bail out
those that won't.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
>From a humanity perspective, an overburdened hospital is a terrible thing.
>From a P&L standpoint, it’s a goldmine. (at least the way health care works
in the US) I’m not saying that’s a good thing or that it’s right. Just that it is
how it works out.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Agree, but as above.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Well, yes and no. Uber is still allowed to operate here even in the lockdown,
but I’m betting they are seeing significantly fewer riders.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
Well, in some countries in Africa, it's totally banned.<br>
<br>
In South Africa, it's permitted to operate but only to transport
essential service workers within a controlled window of hours during
the day.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:D598302E-211F-4499-99CB-63C621C0BF1A@delong.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Well, if you find him, introduce us. I want to see the product implemented and deployed.
If someone else has the resources to do that, I’m happy to work with them on the
process.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
I'm not a hater, I'll keep an ear out :-).<br>
<br>
Mark.<br>
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