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Le 21/03/2020 à 08:37, Bill Woodcock a écrit :<br>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">In France I must show a paper (not smartphone) printed permit, each
sortie one different paper. The receiver of it (police) takes it in
his/her gloved hands then s/he passes it back to me. I do not have
gloves. I wished the receiver did not use the same gloves for each
pereson who passes by and delivers that paper to him.
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Yep, couldn't believe it when my mate in Lyon told me the same thing
this week.
But I suppose this was to be expected, and is an idea that could
potentially spread, worldwide.
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I’ve been in Paris all week, and have gone out, on average, once a day. I pre-printed a stack of already-filled-out forms at the beginning of the week, so I’ve just checked the appropriate box each time I’ve gone out, no big deal. Seems quite reasonable to me. Gets people to at least give some conscious thought as to whether their reason for going out actually meets one of the listed criteria. And I haven’t actually been stopped any of the times I’ve gone out.
It’s early days yet, but Paris is handling this way, way better than I’d have expected.</pre>
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<p><br>
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<p>YEs, it's early days. For the next days, we need forecast, like
in weather forecast. There is no public forecast of this pandemy.</p>
<p>But there is data. Data is more than just numbers of cases in
various web sites. There is also correlation of cases and the
dates and levels of declaration of confinement. The levels of
confinement that arrive are relatively similar but with different
names: close borders, close restaurants, close schools, close City
level 1, close City level 2, close City level max. Each of these
levels has a date, but the precise date is not centralized
somewhere, and worse - not public. One has to watch thousands of
public announcements to understand them. Or to ask those who one
knows in that particular country, based on confidence.<br>
</p>
<p>This is my forecast based on yesterday's public statements on TV
from Authority and other public data sources including China and
Italy, by revese engineering and local data to understand French:</p>
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<p>The peak of the wave (biggest number of new cases a day) in
France will arrive at earliest somewhere between MArch 26th and
MArch 29th. The length of the peak is about 10 to 22 days. At
earliest we start going down the wave starting April 5th, and at
latest we start going down that wave on April 22nd. This going
down might be a rough descent (Codogno city in Italy had 0 cases
after 2 weeks total confinement), or much slower (China Wuhan 0
cases yesterday, but China total increase New Cases still).
That is the horizon.<br>
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<p>That might change for the better or for worse with (1)
'mutations' (a word I dont understand), with (2) the hopeful
medication (Chloroquine of enterprise Sanofi, France; and
Favipiravir, China Authority; and other molecules invoked by
Doctors) and (3) capacity of people to understand restrictions to
stay home, understand how propagation and transmission works and
(4) capacity of law enforcement to enforce restrictions.</p>
<p>To evaluate how a group of people understands what's happening,
there are simple questions: is covid-19 a virus or an illness? is
this an epidemy or a pandemy? One can compare that with how we
went through understanding of AIDS, HIV (SIDA, VIH in French) and
the relevant protections (condoms initially, tri-therapy these
days if I understand it correctly). One can compare that to how
we understand SARS (SRAS in France), H1N1, H5N1 terms.</p>
<p>If we communicate these terms meaningfully then we understand one
another meaningfully.</p>
<p>There is no reason to compare this covid situation to 9/11 - this
is more like a wave, that was more like shock and then go down
slowly.</p>
<p>It comes, slowly, but it comes.<br>
</p>
<p>Alex, LF/HF 2</p>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">And a giant thumbs up to Free, who are keeping my 10G broadband flying along at an actual, measurable, 10G.</pre>
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<p>YEs, lucky you. Me I am on Free's ADSL 5mbit/s, I cant dare to
upload all significant data to youtube, I refrain for later to do
that. It saves me energy :-)</p>
<p>LEt me add this to relate to Guidance in the topic of the email.
There is a "handbook-covid19-prevention-treatment-China" in pdf
format that someone sent me. 68 pages, 34mbyte. I did not read
it. I received also other guides in pdf format dedicated to
hospital person (the one that takes care of the ill person), but
they are in other languages than French and English. I think they
might all be on the Internet, and I hope people can access them
freely, without intermediaries, and that they take time when
appropriate.<br>
</p>
<p>Alex<br>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
-Bill
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