<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<style type="text/css" style="display:none;"> P {margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;} </style>
</head>
<body dir="ltr">
<div id="appendonsend"></div>
<hr style="display:inline-block;width:98%" tabindex="-1">
<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>De :</b> NANOG <nanog-bounces@nanog.org> de la part de Sabri Berisha <sabri@cluecentral.net><br>
<b>Envoyé :</b> samedi 4 janvier 2020 22:40<br>
<b>À :</b> Mark Tinka <mark.tinka@seacom.mu><br>
<b>Cc :</b> nanog <nanog@nanog.org><br>
<b>Objet :</b> Re: 5G roadblock: labor</font>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="BodyFragment"><font size="2"><span style="font-size:11pt;">
<div class="PlainText">----- On Jan 3, 2020, at 9:31 PM, Mark Tinka mark.tinka@seacom.mu wrote:<br>
<br>
Hi,<br>
<br>
>> I don't know about you, but I rarely use those. My T-Mobile plan has<br>
>> unlimited data and coverage is adequate for me. It even works abroad, so<br>
>> unless I need high speed data I'm fine with the included 256kbps.<br>
>> Surprisingly, that's good enough for facetime.<br>
> <br>
> Hell, if an unlimited plan is 256Kbps, sign the whole world up :-). I<br>
> think any MNO selling 4G @ 256Kbps unlimited can manage that.<br>
<br>
I'm not sure if you know how that plan works, but domestic I have unlimited<br>
data at a fair speed (10s of Mbit/s). My foreign data is also unlimited<br>
but throttled at 256kbps. Which is good enough for me.<br>
<br>
> I'm not sure they are willing to sell 4G @ 50Mbps unlimited.<br>
<br>
Of course they will. But the consumer might not like the price tag :)<br>
<br>
>> I predict that there will be a time where, just like POTS lines were<br>
>> exchanged for cellular phones, people will disconnect their cable internet<br>
>> and rely on 6g or 7g alone. And probably still with IPv4 addresses.<br>
> <br>
> I don't think so, not unless GSM receivers are cheaper to install in all<br>
> fixed and mobile devices than wi-fi and Ethernet, and not unless MNO's<br>
> are going to offer unlimited data service at high bandwidth.<br>
> <br>
> It's the kids, Sabri, and judging from your daughter's online behaviour,<br>
> you can see it too :-).<br>
<br>
Lots of if and unlesses. But consider this: in the 90s, when I was making<br>
may way into this industry, cellphones were becoming a mainstream thing.<br>
My parents, and every other grownup for that matter, had a POTS landline<br>
to the house. I'm sure you'll remember calling to the home of your crush<br>
hoping that s/he'd pick up and not a parent.<br>
<br>
By the time I had my own place, I did not need a landline. I had cellular,<br>
thanks to being on-call paid for by the ISP I was working for at the time.<br>
<br>
In fact, I never had a landline as my primary phone number. (note: I did<br>
have landlines going into my house for DSL purposes).<br>
<br>
My prediction is that a similar thing will happen to data. We live in an<br>
era where competing wireless data technologies are being developed. <br>
Cellular, wi-fi, ptp microwave, and geostationary satellite are here<br>
today. Low earth orbit satellite is upcoming, and cellular technology is<br>
evolving to a point where I think my daughter (who is now 8) may never<br>
need cable or dsl. My Roku uses wifi, her Roku will simply have a<br>
softsim, just like those Amazon Kindles that came with AT&T wireless.<br>
<br>
The (far) future is wireless for consumers. Fiber (or whatever is next)<br>
will only be needed for aggregation, datacenter and dc2dc.<br>
<br>
Until then, 5G is merely an intermediate technology. Just like 100BaseT<br>
was a precursor to the 400G that's being deployed right now.<br>
<br>
Thanks,<br>
<br>
Sabri <br>
<br>
</div>
</span></font></div>
</body>
</html>