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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That will not be the biggest issue since most of it
is live TV hence multicast so that stream will be used by another customer
anyway connected to the same customer termination device in the POP. Of
course that will also be depended on the port density of the customer
termination device. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The real issue is VOD since each stream is a
unicast stream per customer and that currently there is no valid implementation
that allows one to actually reuse some of that unicast stream content to deliver
to other users. Since most VOD is currently on a pay per view model customers
should not be actually requesting those streams if not watching them, so for
some time that will allow a certain "limitation" in the usage.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Related to VOD and bandwidth usage there is some
research carried out around the world to solve this issue and one of these
solutions might be the "multicast patching", from what I've seen there is still
a lot of work to be done before it can comply with an SP's network setup. The
other unknown factor is that until now the customer has never had the choice of
viewing what he wants when he wants so AFAIK there is no statistical model that
exists in the video media field that allows to derive a mathematical model
related to VOD consumption.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Thomas</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=mikemac@nortel.com href="mailto:mikemac@nortel.com">Mike
Macdonald</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=tkernen@deckpoint.ch
href="mailto:tkernen@deckpoint.ch">Thomas Kernen</A> ; <A
title=nanog@nanog.org href="mailto:nanog@nanog.org">nanog@nanog.org</A> ; <A
title=odlyzko@dtc.umn.edu href="mailto:odlyzko@dtc.umn.edu">Andrew Odlyzko</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 19, 2005 4:17
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: cost of doing business
</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P><FONT size=2>The problem I see coming is simple bandwidth wastage driven by
NA TV habits. Many homes have TVs on during the day full time even when
not watched. Now were talking about as much as 10-20 Mbps (depending in
HDTV adoption) going into a void. </FONT></P><BR>
<P><FONT size=2>Mike </FONT></P><BR>
<P><FONT size=2>-----Original Message-----</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>From: <A
href="mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu">owner-nanog@merit.edu</A> [<A
href="mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu">mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu</A>] On
Behalf Of Thomas Kernen</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>Sent: Tuesday, April 19, 2005
1:48 AM</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>To: <A
href="mailto:nanog@nanog.org">nanog@nanog.org</A>; Andrew Odlyzko</FONT>
<BR><FONT size=2>Subject: Re: cost of doing business </FONT></P><BR>
<P><FONT size=2>>> fwiw, 100mb to the home costs about that in
japan</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>></FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>></FONT>
<BR><FONT size=2>></FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>> We are talking of two
different things here, traffic versus access </FONT><BR><FONT size=2>>
bandwidth.</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>> It will be a while before the average
household generates 5 megabit/s </FONT><BR><FONT size=2>> traffic.</FONT>
<BR><FONT size=2>> Even in Korea and Hong Kong, where the average broadband
link is in </FONT><BR><FONT size=2>> the 5-10 Mbps range, average traffic
is about 0.1 Mbps. The main </FONT><BR><FONT size=2>> purpose of high
speed links is to get low transaction latency (as in </FONT><BR><FONT
size=2>> "I want that Web page on my screen NOW," or "I want that song for
</FONT><BR><FONT size=2>> transfer to my portable device NOW"), so
utilizations are low.</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT size=2>For those of us that are already running triple play
architectures and working on the data analysis related to the bandwidth usage
growth (in my case over the last 18 months and adding services one after the
other) I see this with a different light:</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2>I fully agree with the transaction latency syndrome, people
are compulsive customers that want to buy right now and you (as a service
provider) want to see to them purchase the service before they change their
mind, just need to look at the ringtones market to see how much people are
willing to spend within seconds for a piece of music they will replace in a
few days/weeks with their next favorite tune from the charts that marketing is
feeding them with.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2>Where I don't agree is on the bandwidth usage analysis, once
you add the IP based TV/VOD* services you will be carrying close to 5Mbps on
average on your network in the near future. Either for the one of the TV
channels (currently the market is talking about 2 concurrent TV channels down
the same pipe to an end user's home in the North American model or 1 for
the</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2>European) or the VOD. So agreed this is not Internet traffic
but you will need to carry it beyond your access termination device
(DSLAM/CMTS/ Ethernet</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2>switch) since the economics of the IPTV/VOD market and
(current?) technical scalability will prevent you from being able to have a
the full IPTV/VOD streaming (= unicast and/or multicast in this case) in each
POP to keep the traffic as local as possible. So anyhow within your metro area
network accessing and aggregating the customers the amount of bandwith
required to service all customers will grow quite a bit with IPTV/VOD
services.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2>IMHO (of course)</FONT> <BR><FONT size=2>Thomas</FONT> </P>
<P><FONT size=2>*Triple play IPTV/VOD = IP packets carrying a video signal
using (name your favorite format) either as unicast or multicast stream. This
excludes the current hybrid HFC networks that still provide digital TV via an
HF stream using (insert your favorite standard here) and the Internet access
and voice service over IP. Anyhow they will migrate once DOCSIS 3.0 and
the wideband benefits have been marketed to all the cable operators as the
"next big thing" they need to have and hence run an IP only service for all
the triple play services. </FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>