10 years from now...

Mon Mar 29 01:58:41 UTC 2021

No need for all that fancy RF tools.
Moreover, detecting >10Ghz transmission is not such an easy task.
The beam is most likely narrow enough to be difficult to detect.

But, (for example) it's enough to visit from foreign IPs some local 
website,
to have cookie set: SATELLITE_USER=xyz
Then when person use local connection and visit same website, this 
cookie
will send law enforcement hint.
And there are many more automated, software-based ways to detect that a
device has been connected via satellite in past.

Not to mention the fact that any attempt to provide services illegally
is pandora box.
At least it may end up with the fact that the country will start jamming 
uplink
frequencies, which will affect the service in whole region.
And in the worst case, it will give reason to use anti-satellite 
weapons.

On 2021-03-29 03:23, Eric Kuhnke wrote:
> I would also concur that the likelihood of Starlink (or a Oneweb, or
> Kuiper) terminal being used successfully to bypass the GFW or similar
> serious Internet censorship, in an authoritarian environment, is
> probably low. This is because:
> 
> a) It has to transmit in known bands.
> 
> b) It has to be located in a location with a very good, clear view of
> the sky in all directions (even a single tree obstruction in one
> section of the sky, relative to where the antenna is mounted will
> cause packet loss/periodic issues on a starlink beta terminal right
> now). Visually identifying the terminal would not be hard.
> 
> c) Portable spectrum analyzers capable of up to 30 GHz are not nearly
> as expensive as they used to be. They also have much better GUIs and
> visualization tools than what was available 6-10 years ago.
> 
> d) You could successfully train local law enforcement to use these
> sort of portable spectrum analyzers in a one-day, 8-hour training
> course.
> 
> e) The equipment would have to be smuggled into the country
> 
> f) Many people such as in a location like Iran may lack access to a
> standard payment system for the services (the percentage of Iranians
> with access to buy things online with visa/mastercard/american express
> or similar is quite low).
> 
> There are already plenty of places in the world where if you set up a
> 1.2, 1.8 or 2.4 meter C, Ku or Ka band VSAT terminal using some sort
> of geostationary based services, without appropriate government
> "licenses", men with guns will come to dismantle it and arrest you.
> 
> I am not saying it is an impossible problem to solve, but any system
> intended for that sort of purpose would have to be designed for
> circumvention, and not a consumer/COTS adaptation of an off the shelf
> starlink terminal.
> 
> On Sat, Mar 27, 2021 at 8:31 PM nanog at jima.us <nanog at jima.us> wrote:
> 
>> Please don't forget that RF sources can be tracked down by even
>> minimally-well-equipped adversaries.
>> 
>> - Jima
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+nanog=jima.us at nanog.org> On Behalf Of
>> scott
>> Sent: Saturday, March 27, 2021 19:36
>> To: nanog at nanog.org
>> Subject: Re: 10 years from now... (was: internet futures)
>> 
>> On 3/26/2021 9:42 AM, Michael Thomas wrote:
>>> LEO internet providers will be coming online which might make a
>>> difference in the corners of the world where it's hard to get
>> access,
>>> but will it allow internet access to parachute in behind the Great
>> 
>>> Firewall?
>> ............
>>> How do the Chinas of the world intend to deal with the Great
>> Firewall
>>> implications?
>> 
>> This is what I hope will change in the next 10 years.  "Turning off
>> the
>> internet" will be harder and harder for folks suppressing others,
>> many
>> times violently, and hiding it from everyone else.  A small-ish
>> antenna
>> easily hidden would be necessary.
>> 
>> scott