10 years from now... (was: internet futures)

Eric Kuhnke eric.kuhnke at gmail.com
Mon Mar 29 00:23:45 UTC 2021


I would also concur that the likelihood of Starlink (or a Oneweb, or
Kuiper) terminal being used successfully to bypass the GFW or similar
serious Internet censorship, in an authoritarian environment, is probably
low. This is because:

a) It has to transmit in known bands.

b) It has to be located in a location with a very good, clear view of the
sky in all directions (even a single tree obstruction in one section of the
sky, relative to where the antenna is mounted will cause packet
loss/periodic issues on a starlink beta terminal right now). Visually
identifying the terminal would not be hard.

c) Portable spectrum analyzers capable of up to 30 GHz are not nearly as
expensive as they used to be. They also have much better GUIs and
visualization tools than what was available 6-10 years ago.

d) You could successfully train local law enforcement to use these sort of
portable spectrum analyzers in a one-day, 8-hour training course.

e) The equipment would have to be smuggled into the country

f) Many people such as in a location like Iran may lack access to a
standard payment system for the services (the percentage of Iranians with
access to buy things online with visa/mastercard/american express or
similar is quite low).


There are already plenty of places in the world where if you set up a 1.2,
1.8 or 2.4 meter C, Ku or Ka band VSAT terminal using some sort of
geostationary based services, without appropriate government "licenses",
men with guns will come to dismantle it and arrest you.

I am not saying it is an impossible problem to solve, but any system
intended for that sort of purpose would have to be designed for
circumvention, and not a consumer/COTS adaptation of an off the shelf
starlink terminal.









On Sat, Mar 27, 2021 at 8:31 PM nanog at jima.us <nanog at jima.us> wrote:

> Please don't forget that RF sources can be tracked down by even
> minimally-well-equipped adversaries.
>
> - Jima
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+nanog=jima.us at nanog.org> On Behalf Of scott
> Sent: Saturday, March 27, 2021 19:36
> To: nanog at nanog.org
> Subject: Re: 10 years from now... (was: internet futures)
>
>
> On 3/26/2021 9:42 AM, Michael Thomas wrote:
> > LEO internet providers will be coming online which might make a
> > difference in the corners of the world where it's hard to get access,
> > but will it allow internet access to parachute in behind the Great
> > Firewall?
> ............
> > How do the Chinas of the world intend to deal with the Great Firewall
> > implications?
>
>
> This is what I hope will change in the next 10 years.  "Turning off the
> internet" will be harder and harder for folks suppressing others, many
> times violently, and hiding it from everyone else.  A small-ish antenna
> easily hidden would be necessary.
>
> scott
>
>
>
>
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