5G roadblock: labor

Sat Jan 4 22:45:49 UTC 2020

________________________________
De : NANOG <nanog-bounces at nanog.org> de la part de Sabri Berisha <sabri at cluecentral.net>
Envoyé : samedi 4 janvier 2020 22:40
À : Mark Tinka <mark.tinka at seacom.mu>
Cc : nanog <nanog at nanog.org>
Objet : Re: 5G roadblock: labor

----- On Jan 3, 2020, at 9:31 PM, Mark Tinka mark.tinka at seacom.mu wrote:

Hi,

>> I don't know about you, but I rarely use those. My T-Mobile plan has
>> unlimited data and coverage is adequate for me. It even works abroad, so
>> unless I need high speed data I'm fine with the included 256kbps.
>> Surprisingly, that's good enough for facetime.
>
> Hell, if an unlimited plan is 256Kbps, sign the whole world up :-). I
> think any MNO selling 4G @ 256Kbps unlimited can manage that.

I'm not sure if you know how that plan works, but domestic I have unlimited
data at a fair speed (10s of Mbit/s). My foreign data is also unlimited
but throttled at 256kbps. Which is good enough for me.

> I'm not sure they are willing to sell 4G @ 50Mbps unlimited.

Of course they will. But the consumer might not like the price tag :)

>> I predict that there will be a time where, just like POTS lines were
>> exchanged for cellular phones, people will disconnect their cable internet
>> and rely on 6g or 7g alone. And probably still with IPv4 addresses.
>
> I don't think so, not unless GSM receivers are cheaper to install in all
> fixed and mobile devices than wi-fi and Ethernet, and not unless MNO's
> are going to offer unlimited data service at high bandwidth.
>
> It's the kids, Sabri, and judging from your daughter's online behaviour,
> you can see it too :-).

Lots of if and unlesses. But consider this: in the 90s, when I was making
may way into this industry, cellphones were becoming a mainstream thing.
My parents, and every other grownup for that matter, had a POTS landline
to the house. I'm sure you'll remember calling to the home of your crush
hoping that s/he'd pick up and not a parent.

By the time I had my own place, I did not need a landline. I had cellular,
thanks to being on-call paid for by the ISP I was working for at the time.

In fact, I never had a landline as my primary phone number. (note: I did
have landlines going into my house for DSL purposes).

My prediction is that a similar thing will happen to data. We live in an
era where competing wireless data technologies are being developed.
Cellular, wi-fi, ptp microwave, and geostationary satellite are here
today. Low earth orbit satellite is upcoming, and cellular technology is
evolving to a point where I think my daughter (who is now 8) may never
need cable or dsl. My Roku uses wifi, her Roku will simply have a
softsim, just like those Amazon Kindles that came with AT&T wireless.

The (far) future is wireless for consumers. Fiber (or whatever is next)
will only be needed for aggregation, datacenter and dc2dc.

Until then, 5G is merely an intermediate technology. Just like 100BaseT
was a precursor to the 400G that's being deployed right now.

Thanks,

Sabri

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