5G roadblock: labor

Sun Jan 5 12:48:07 UTC 2020

Sabri
At the very end you note 100base-t as a precursor to 400g.  100baset really found its success as an access solution - computer connections.  400GbE will be an aggregation / core solution.  It will be some time if ever where 400GbE is used as an access solution - perhaps some hpc applications.

Why?

Cost and no need for that sort of bw.

When we look at 5g / Wi-Fi / cellular solutions - cost that the consumer will tolerate will drive its use for a given application

Sent from my iPhone

> On Jan 4, 2020, at 5:41 PM, Sabri Berisha <sabri at cluecentral.net> wrote:
> 
> ----- On Jan 3, 2020, at 9:31 PM, Mark Tinka mark.tinka at seacom.mu wrote:
> 
> Hi,
> 
>>> I don't know about you, but I rarely use those. My T-Mobile plan has
>>> unlimited data and coverage is adequate for me. It even works abroad, so
>>> unless I need high speed data I'm fine with the included 256kbps.
>>> Surprisingly, that's good enough for facetime.
>> 
>> Hell, if an unlimited plan is 256Kbps, sign the whole world up :-). I
>> think any MNO selling 4G @ 256Kbps unlimited can manage that.
> 
> I'm not sure if you know how that plan works, but domestic I have unlimited
> data at a fair speed (10s of Mbit/s). My foreign data is also unlimited
> but throttled at 256kbps. Which is good enough for me.
> 
>> I'm not sure they are willing to sell 4G @ 50Mbps unlimited.
> 
> Of course they will. But the consumer might not like the price tag :)
> 
>>> I predict that there will be a time where, just like POTS lines were
>>> exchanged for cellular phones, people will disconnect their cable internet
>>> and rely on 6g or 7g alone. And probably still with IPv4 addresses.
>> 
>> I don't think so, not unless GSM receivers are cheaper to install in all
>> fixed and mobile devices than wi-fi and Ethernet, and not unless MNO's
>> are going to offer unlimited data service at high bandwidth.
>> 
>> It's the kids, Sabri, and judging from your daughter's online behaviour,
>> you can see it too :-).
> 
> Lots of if and unlesses. But consider this: in the 90s, when I was making
> may way into this industry, cellphones were becoming a mainstream thing.
> My parents, and every other grownup for that matter, had a POTS landline
> to the house. I'm sure you'll remember calling to the home of your crush
> hoping that s/he'd pick up and not a parent.
> 
> By the time I had my own place, I did not need a landline. I had cellular,
> thanks to being on-call paid for by the ISP I was working for at the time.
> 
> In fact, I never had a landline as my primary phone number. (note: I did
> have landlines going into my house for DSL purposes).
> 
> My prediction is that a similar thing will happen to data. We live in an
> era where competing wireless data technologies are being developed. 
> Cellular, wi-fi, ptp microwave, and geostationary satellite are here
> today. Low earth orbit satellite is upcoming, and cellular technology is
> evolving to a point where I think my daughter (who is now 8) may never
> need cable or dsl. My Roku uses wifi, her Roku will simply have a
> softsim, just like those Amazon Kindles that came with AT&T wireless.
> 
> The (far) future is wireless for consumers. Fiber (or whatever is next)
> will only be needed for aggregation, datacenter and dc2dc.
> 
> Until then, 5G is merely an intermediate technology. Just like 100BaseT
> was a precursor to the 400G that's being deployed right now.
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> Sabri 
> 