5G roadblock: labor

Sat Jan 4 05:03:36 UTC 2020

On 3/Jan/20 16:25, Ca By wrote:

> Mark, you are oversimplifying the market

Isn't that how the kids see it, though :-).

>
> 1.  All wireless networks are capped by spectrum capacity / physica. 
> As a user, you have been on a congested cell site and a congested
> 802.11 AP.  So, as an operator, you have to ration service. That means
> cap / qos / $

Agreed - but the cost of deploying a GSM radio is orders of magnitude
higher than the cost of deploying wi-fi (even enterprise-grade wi-fi).

Already, customers are doing more than half the work for operators by
deploying their own wi-fi into their own homes at their own cost. Folk
like Google (with OnHub and Google WiFi) are making the deployment,
management and performance of in-home wi-fi a lot easier for users that
"feel like the Internet should be simple". This is a good thing for
MNO's, especially those already leveraging VoWiFi to control investment
in GSM radios without impacting performance. I'm sure MNO's will be
less-than-pleased if in-home wi-fi were to suddenly collapse, because
all that traffic then shifts back to GSM, e.g., during power outages,
ISP outages, e.t.c.

Yes, you probably need as many wi-fi AP's as you need 5G radios, but the
cost between them is vastly different that you can provide customers
with the benefit at a fraction of the cost. Hell, if the MNO's came
together to share wi-fi infrastructure and differentiate services by
SSID, in the same location, it might actually work :-).

>
> 2.  In the USA, Cable / fiber / copper ISPs sometimes do not sell
> unlimited either
>
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.howtogeek.com/424037/googles-stadia-is-about-to-crash-against-isp-data-caps/amp/
>
> Network operators like to set their rates based on some median user
> profile.  They are not being exploitive. Some users tax the network
> more and drive the upgrade cycle more than others.

Same here in Africa, when FTTH services were initially rolled out.

In South Africa, as little as 4 years ago, 90% of all FTTH services were
cap-based. Today, while you can still get a cap-based FTTH service, I'd
say that number has shifted, and 65% - 70% of all FTTH services are now
uncapped. Some are maintaining their capped services but bundling in
uncapped elements for popular services such as Netflix, e.t.c.

Ultimately, the eco system is showing that the cost of IP Transit is so
low (just about US$0 for peering in South Africa on NAPAfrica), to the
extent that I can posit all FTTH services in South Africa will be 100%
uncapped within the next 2 - 4 years.

>
>
> 3. There are wifi providers, wisps, cable, mno ... they all compete
> and blur the lines. I think wifi has provided limited benefit to cable
> operators that have deployed it, but hope for using free spectrum
> springs enternal
>
> https://www.fiercewireless.com/operators/altice-mobile-garners-its-first-15-000-subs-and-3m-revenue

So I'm not suggesting that wi-fi be deployed as the sole solution. I'm
mainly referring to dense parts of a city, country, e.t.c.

In sparsely-populated locations, 2G, 3G, 4G should do just fine (I don't
think 5G or anything with a higher frequency makes sense due to the vast
spread of eyeballs in these areas).

But in densely-packed areas, up until the point where 5G becomes
commercially viable to deploy at scale, utilize the fibre that is
massively available to create as many pockets as possible of wi-fi in
places where customers do not run their own, e.g., malls, stadia,
restaurants, bars, clubs, gas stations, schools, e.t.c., to alleviate
the pressure on 4G (or even pressure on dense 5G deployment). One could
even go a step further and work with private wi-fi owners (regular
people running a shop) to allow MNO's to either ride their wi-fi network
or replace it with a shared one.

Of course, if 5G does become reasonably cheap to deploy in the future,
then who cares :-). But judging by the rate of development in the wi-fi
space, it seems like it's going to be a race between both camps with
each new iteration. And as long as GSM capex continues to remain as
costly as it has always been - considering the declining margins for
MNO's - wi-fi capex will always look like an alternative.

Mark.
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