RIPE our of IPv4

Wed Nov 27 19:08:04 UTC 2019

On 2019-11-26 17:11, Ca By wrote:
> On Tue, Nov 26, 2019 at 12:15 AM Sabri Berisha <sabri at cluecentral.net>
> wrote:
> 
>> ----- On Nov 26, 2019, at 1:36 AM, Doug Barton dougb at dougbarton.us 
>> wrote:
>> 

[snip]
>> there is no ROI at this point. In this kind of environment there needs 
>> to
>> be a strong case to invest the capex to support IPv6.
>> 
>> IPv6 must be supported on the CxO level in order to be deployed.
>> 
>> Thanks,
>> 
>> Sabri, (Badum tsss) MBA
> 
> 
> I see....well let me translate it you MBA-eese for you:
> 
> FANG deployed ipv6 nearly 10 years ago. Since deploying ipv6, the 
> cohort
> experienced 300% CAGR. Also, everything is mobile, and all mobile 
> providers
> in the usa offer ipv6 by default in most cases. Latency! Scale! As your
> company launches its digital transformation iot 2020 virtualization
> container initiatives, ipv6 will be an integral part of staying 
> relevant on
> the blockchain.  Also, FANG did it nearly 10 years ago.  Big content 
> and
> big eyeballs are on ipv6, ipv4 is a winnowing longtail of irrelevance 
> and
> iot botnets.

None of which matters a damn to almost all of my business eyeball 
customers.  They can still get from our network to 100% of all Internet 
content & services via IPv4 in 2019.  I regularly vet deals for our 
sales team, and out of the hundreds of deals we sold this year, I can 
count on one hand the number of deals where customers wanted IPv6.  We 
sold them IPv6 access, but we didn't put it on our own network, because 
we face the same internal challenges Sabri mentioned.  (SD-WAN, OTOH, 
was far more popular.  I'll give you three guesses why.  Hint - it's not 
because tunnel technology is awesome and allows us to scale our networks 
further and everyone is doing it.)

Though their participation has been key in making IPv6 more useful for 
eyeballs, content hasn't driven adoption.  The only thing eyeballs care 
about is getting to 100% of what they need and want at minimal cost.  
Until eyeball networks start charging eyeballs for IPv4, IPv4 will 
linger.  The day eyeballs start bitching on forums, opening tickets, 
complaining on Twitter, etc. because they have only IPv6 is when IPv4 
will start to lose relevance.

As an aside, I would guess that it's the corporate eyeball customers 
with servers, not resi/mobile behind CGNAT, that will bear the brunt of 
the IPv4 cost first.  But what enterprise wants to tell its non-IPv6 
customers "your Internet needs to be upgraded, come back to us when 
you're done?"  That doesn't bode well for the short-term future.

-Brian