modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

Tue Apr 2 21:21:58 UTC 2019

FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix.  I have had no complains about speed in 4 1/2 years.  I have been planning to bump them to 1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic justification.

	paul

> On Apr 2, 2019, at 3:21 PM, Louie Lee via NANOG <nanog at nanog.org> wrote:
> 
> Certainly.
> 
> Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone, edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which scale+growth is quite another.
> 
> And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT streaming, some IoT (like always-on home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and network analysis.
> 
> Louie
> Google Fiber.
> 
> 
> 
> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <jared at puck.nether.net> wrote:
> 
> 
> > On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deleskie at gmail.com> wrote:
> > 
> > +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is nearing straight up :)
> 
> 
> I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers.
> 
> The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900.  You get different population scale and average usage.
> 
> I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth internet usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G connection you can support 500-800 subscribers these days.  Ideally you can get a 10G link for a reasonable price.  Your scale looks different as well as you can work with “the content guys” once you get far enough.
> 
> Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday.
> 
> - Jared