modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

Tue Apr 2 17:47:50 UTC 2019

:: How do people model and try to project residential 
:: subscriber bandwidth demands into the future? Do 
:: you base it primarily on historical data?
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Yes, if you have a lot of quality data that goes far 
back in the past you can make pretty good judgements 
on future needs.  Less data and/or not very far back 
lessens the accuracy of a prediction about the future.

scott

--- thomasammon at gmail.com wrote:

From: Tom Ammon <thomasammon at gmail.com>
To: NANOG <nanog at nanog.org>
Subject: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand
Date: Tue, 2 Apr 2019 12:54:47 -0400

How do people model and try to project residential subscriber bandwidth
demands into the future? Do you base it primarily on historical data? Are
there more sophisticated approaches that you use to figure out how much
backbone bandwidth you need to build to keep your eyeballs happy?

Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really asking
is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are going to bring
to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks such as QUIC
and TCP BBR?

Tom
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