Re: How long will it take to completely get rid of IPv4 or will it happen at all?

Alexander Maassen outsider at scarynet.org
Sat Jun 27 17:58:24 UTC 2015


Before that will happen. Isp's will first try cgnat and the alikes. They rather spend money on hardware supporting that then make the networks dualstack.

Why? you may ask. Simple. Most customer service centers have ppl with less then basic skills. Explaining how ipv4 even looks like took them long enough.

Abuse ticket systems and logparsers are probably also v4 based. And the one who wrote them, probably got fired and replaced by a younger/cheaper guy who just got out of school with no real field experience.

When will the change happen then you might ask. Very simple. If the largest destinations like fb/twitter and others start to drop v4.

So what we really would need is not an ipv6 day, but, you might have guessed it, an ipv6 ONLY day. 

On such a day, a hell of a lot isps will have their support queue overfilled with people asking why they cannot visit their favourite sites. And all the isp can say is: our network infrastructure is too old.

-------- Oorspronkelijk bericht --------
Van: Bob Evans <bob at FiberInternetCenter.com> 
Datum:  
Aan: Rafael Possamai <rafael at gav.ufsc.br> 
Cc: North American Network Operators' Group <nanog at nanog.org> 
Onderwerp: How long will it take to completely get rid of IPv4 or will it
  happen at all? 
 
Our fundamental issue is that an IPv4 address has no real value as
networks still give them away, it's pennies in your pocket. Everything of
use needs to have a cost to motivate for change. Establishing that now
won't create change it will first create greater conservation. There will
be a cost that will be reached before change takes place on a scale that
matters.

Networks set the false perception and customer expectation that address
space is free and readily available. Networks with plenty, still land many
customers today by handing over a class C to customer with less than 10
servers and 5 people in an office.

We have a greater supply for packets to travel than we do for addresses
required to move packets. Do you know how many packets a single IP address
can generate or utilize, if it was attached too "The World's Fastest
Internet" in someplace like Canadaland or Sweden on init7's Fiber7 ?  No
matter how large the pipe the answer is always, "all of it". It's address
space we should now place a price upon. Unlike, My Space's disappearance
when Facebook arrived there is no quick jump to IPv6. There is no
coordinated effort required that involves millions of people to change
browser window content.

But to answer your question...

Everything that is handed over for free is perceived as having no value.
Therefore, IPv4 has to cost much more than the cost to change to IPv6
today. While the IPv6 addresses are free, it is expensive to change.
Businesses spend lots of money on a free lunches. It's going to take at
least the price of one good lunch per IP address per month to create the
consideration for change. That's about $30 for 2 people in California. 
Offering a /48 of free IPv6 space to everyone on the planet didn't make it
happen.

There is no financial incentive to move to IPv6. In fact there is more
reason "not to change" than "to change". The new gear cost $$$ (lots of it
didn't work well and required exploration to learn that),  IT people need
hours to implement (schedules are full of day-to-day issues), networks
keep growing with offerings that drop Internet costs and save everyone
money, business as usual is productive on IPv4 (business doesn't have time
for distraction), many of us get distracted by something more immediate
and interesting than buying a new wi-fi router for the home.

What will come first ?
A) the earths future core rotation changes altering the ionosphere in such
a way that we are all exposed to continuous x-rays that shorten our
lifespan
                 OR
B) the last IPv4 computer running will be reconfigured to IPv6

Thank You
Bob Evans
CTO




> Randy,
>
> How long do you think it will take to completely get rid of IPv4? Or is it
> even going to happen at all?
>
> On Sat, Jun 27, 2015 at 4:57 AM, Randy Bush <randy at psg.com> wrote:
>
>> the rirs have run out of their free source of short ints to rent to us.
>> i am sure everyone will move to ipv6 in a week.  news at eleven.
>>
>> randy
>>
>




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