Also Facebook (was: Re: Dual stack IPv6 for IPv4 depletion)

Jared Mauch jared at puck.Nether.net
Sat Jul 11 02:06:05 UTC 2015


On Fri, Jul 10, 2015 at 08:58:22PM -0400, Ricky Beam wrote:
> On Fri, 10 Jul 2015 06:14:16 -0400, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:
> >If there are “holes” in the methodology, then they are quite consistent
> >holes...
> 
> They are mere statistics. They say only what they say without any measured
> margin of error.
> 
> For Google, their numbers are collected via javascript embedded in search
> results. Anything that prevents that JS from running to completion
> (noscript, error, nagivating away, ...) is a lost count. Anyone not using
> Google search won't be counted. (that's a non-zero number, btw. But
> likewise, is difficult to prove.) So, there's ways to be missed in their
> numbers. OTOH, those being counted could, potentially, be counted more than
> once depending on how much of the address they correlate. (privacy
> extensions rotate the address)
> 
> I don't know how Facebook is collecting stats. But I suspect they have a
> wider sampling base due simply to the fact almost every web page on the
> internet has some content pulled from facebook -- eg. comment engine,
> authentication engine, or "post on facebook" pingback button. How many sites
> do you visit per day that pull nothing at all from facebook?
> 
> The only people who can give solid numbers w.r.t. IPv6 usage are the ISPs
> themselves. And we cannot trust them because it's a marketing statistic, if
> they release anything at all. (been there, watched marketing/PR ignore my
> numbers and make up their own.)

	Well, I'm a techie mostly.  I'll say I currently see
107 ipv4 bits for every 1 ipv6 bit poking at netflow data.  My ratios
may not be yours, YMMV, sampling error, router bugs, etc.

	ie: not that great.  That being said, we continue to see an
uptick and it's nearly all tcp.

	Depending on whose data you use and how you solve ones regression
you can come up with interesting results.  If you primarily deal with one
country and don't have it, consider looking at both the google and apnic
data via this tool:

https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/project.php

	I have also noticed my iOS9 public beta device passes
the checks at Jasons test-ipv6.com site where it would often prefer
ipv4.

	- Jared

-- 
Jared Mauch  | pgp key available via finger from jared at puck.nether.net
clue++;      | http://puck.nether.net/~jared/  My statements are only mine.



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