misunderstanding scale

Sat Mar 22 17:58:57 UTC 2014

On Mar 22, 2014, at 10:16 AM, Nick Hilliard <nick at foobar.org> wrote:

> On 22/03/2014 16:29, Doug Barton wrote:
>> It is a mistake to believe that the only reason to add IPv6 to your network
>> is size. Adding IPv6 to your network _now_ is the right decision because at
>> some point in the not-too-distant future it will be the dominant network
>> technology, and you don't want to get left behind.
> 
> not wanting to rain on anyone's parade, but people have been claiming this
> since the days of IPng.  Granted, we're a couple of years after IANA runout
> and two RIRs are also in post-runout phase, but the level of pain
> associated with continued deployment of ipv4-only services is still nowhere
> near the point that ipv6 can be considered a viable alternative.
> 
> Nick

We've always told everyone the pain would be starting in the runout phase.  Not immediately like a wall, but gradually.

Some people I know are already experiencing scarcity itches.  One or two, some uncomfortable burning sensations.  This will ramp up over time. 

ISPs around you will get their last blocks from ARIN or other RIRs as the last RIRs exhaust soon; then the ISP blocks will be gone.  Timescales for each of these phases will be months.  There will be M&A or open market recovery of currently unused space for a while longer.  With consumers seeing the inevitable slowly increasing markups in price for the new resources.  Then the serious global pain starts...

It is true that a head in the sand was effective for 15 years.  But you'd better pull it out now.  Each of these phases is well understood *and we're here now*...

-george william herbert
george.herbert at gmail.com

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