Inevitable death, was Re: Verizon Public Policy on Netflix

Mon Jul 14 17:17:22 UTC 2014

From: Benson Schliesser <bensons at queuefull.net>
>Thanks for adding this perspective, Barry. I think it's realistic. But I
>also think it might miss an orthogonally connected issue - this isn't just
>about bandwidth, but about commoditization, consolidation, size etc. It may
>be that small ISPs just can't compete (at least in the broader market) as
>the market evolves. Similar to how I was disappointed by the loss of my
>local bookstore, but still buy all my stuff from Amazon. ... I hear Brett
>essentially asking for Netflix to do more for him than it does for big
>ISPs, because his small rural business model can't compete with the big
>guys.
>
>Thoughts?

But if the marginal cost of carrying netflix and similar approached
zero this wouldn't be a problem.

A big problem with being a usenet server was that it could take 50GB
of disk space, easy. How to monetize all that disk space in a day when
a GB disk cost $500? A surcharge for clients using usenet? Charge
downstream customers you fed? New protocols with less store and more
aggressive forward? Evolve to sites which specialize in usenet service
rather than expecting every mom & pop ISP to provide it as a base
measure of service?

But today I can get key fobs with 64GB for about $50, and of course
4TB disks for under $200.

So the apparent urgency of the content business models is directly
related to the costs, which tend to drop over time, usually to the
point that it becomes non-urgent (or argue that they can't.)

More importantly it tends to go through the same basic patterns:
Identify who is benefiting. Argue about what "benefiting" means. Try
to assess relative benefits and costs proportionately. Improve
technology step-wise to mitigate and possibly reallocate costs
assessing any effects on benefits. Follow the technology curve. Etc.

Video streaming seems challenging. But so did 50GB of disk once.

I suppose if I were to make a concrete suggestion it would be to try
to develop hypothetical cost curves, thresholds (at what cost does it
not matter even to the more vulnerable?), estimate dates (hah!), and
not put more energy into the problem than such an analysis merits. In
particular soas not to develop potentially disruptive new models whose
implementation and cost of implementation one might soon enough come
to regret.

Also remembering that extrapolations tend to be foiled by discrete
events. For example, Apr 1, 2017: Comcast/TW buys Netflix...

 On Jul 13, 2014 3:59 PM, "Barry Shein" <bzs at world.std.com> wrote:

>
> Just an observation:
>
> I've been on the internet since dirt was rocks.
>
> It seems to me that one theme which has come up over and over and over
> is that some new-ish technology demands more bandwidth than whatever
> it was people were doing previously and as it popularizes people begin
> fighting.
>
> In the early 80s it was downloading the host table, "could people
> please try NOT to all download via a script at exactly midnight!!!"
>
> Then it was free software in the eighties, did WSMR et al really have
> a RIGHT to become a magnet for such popular program downloads?!
>
> And graphic connection to remote super-computer centers. Could the
> images please be generated locally and downloaded "off hours"
> (whatever "off hours" meant on the internet) or even shipped via tape
> etc rather than all these real-time graphical displays running???!!!
>
> Hey, the BACKBONE was 56kb.
>
> Then Usenet, and images, particularly, oh, explicit images because OMG
> imagine if our administration found out our link was slow because
> students (pick a powerless political class to pick on and declare
> THEIR use wasteful) were downloading...um...you know.
>
> And games OMG games.
>
> I remember sitting in an asst provost's office in the 80s being
> lectured about how email was a complete and total waste of the
> university's resources! Computers were for COMPUTING (he had a phd in
> physics which is where that was coming from.)
>
> And the public getting on the internet (ahem.)
>
> On and on.
>
> Now it's video streaming.
>
> And then the bandwidth catches up and it's no big deal anymore.
>
> And then everyone stops arguing about it and goes on to the next thing
> to argue about. Probably will be something in the realm of this
> "Internet of Things" idea, too many people conversing with their
> toaster-ovens.
>
> My comment has always been the same:
>
>    There are two kinds of people in this world: Those who try to
>    figure out how bake more bread, and those who herd people into
>    bread lines.
>
> I've always tried to be the sort of person who tries to figure out how
> to bake more bread. This too shall pass.
>
> --
>         -Barry Shein
>
> The World              | bzs at TheWorld.com           |
> http://www.TheWorld.com
> Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: 800-THE-WRLD        | Dial-Up: US, PR,
> Canada
> Software Tool & Die    | Public Access Internet     | SINCE 1989     *oo*
>
<p dir=3D"ltr">Thanks for adding this perspective, Barry. I think it's =
realistic. But I also think it might miss an orthogonally connected issue -=
 this isn't just about bandwidth, but about commoditization, consolidat=
ion, size etc. It may be that small ISPs just can't compete (at least i=
n the broader market) as the market evolves. Similar to how I was disappoin=
ted by the loss of my local bookstore, but still buy all my stuff from Amaz=
on. ... I hear Brett essentially asking for Netflix to do more for him than=
 it does for big ISPs, because his small rural business model can't com=
pete with the big guys.</p>

<p dir=3D"ltr">Thoughts?</p>
<p dir=3D"ltr">Cheers,<br>
-Benson<br>
</p>
<div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Jul 13, 2014 3:59 PM, "Barry Shein"=
 <<a href=3D"mailto:bzs at world.std.com">bzs at world.std.com</a>> wrote:<=
br type=3D"attribution"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0=
 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<br>
Just an observation:<br>
<br>
I've been on the internet since dirt was rocks.<br>
<br>
It seems to me that one theme which has come up over and over and over<br>
is that some new-ish technology demands more bandwidth than whatever<br>
it was people were doing previously and as it popularizes people begin<br>
fighting.<br>
<br>
In the early 80s it was downloading the host table, "could people<br>
please try NOT to all download via a script at exactly midnight!!!"<br=
>
<br>
Then it was free software in the eighties, did WSMR et al really have<br>
a RIGHT to become a magnet for such popular program downloads?!<br>
<br>
And graphic connection to remote super-computer centers. Could the<br>
images please be generated locally and downloaded "off hours"<br>
(whatever "off hours" meant on the internet) or even shipped via =
tape<br>
etc rather than all these real-time graphical displays running???!!!<br>
<br>
Hey, the BACKBONE was 56kb.<br>
<br>
Then Usenet, and images, particularly, oh, explicit images because OMG<br>
imagine if our administration found out our link was slow because<br>
students (pick a powerless political class to pick on and declare<br>
THEIR use wasteful) were downloading...um...you know.<br>
<br>
And games OMG games.<br>
<br>
I remember sitting in an asst provost's office in the 80s being<br>
lectured about how email was a complete and total waste of the<br>
university's resources! Computers were for COMPUTING (he had a phd in<b=
r>
physics which is where that was coming from.)<br>
<br>
And the public getting on the internet (ahem.)<br>
<br>
On and on.<br>
<br>
Now it's video streaming.<br>
<br>
And then the bandwidth catches up and it's no big deal anymore.<br>
<br>
And then everyone stops arguing about it and goes on to the next thing<br>
to argue about. Probably will be something in the realm of this<br>
"Internet of Things" idea, too many people conversing with their<=
br>
toaster-ovens.<br>
<br>
My comment has always been the same:<br>
<br>
=C2=A0 =C2=A0There are two kinds of people in this world: Those who try to<=
br>
=C2=A0 =C2=A0figure out how bake more bread, and those who herd people into=
<br>
=C2=A0 =C2=A0bread lines.<br>
<br>
I've always tried to be the sort of person who tries to figure out how<=
br>
to bake more bread. This too shall pass.<br>
<br>
--<br>
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 -Barry Shein<br>
<br>
The World =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| bzs at TheWorld.co=
m =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | <a href=3D"http://www.TheWorld.com" =
target=3D"_blank">http://www.TheWorld.com</a><br>
Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: 800-THE-WRLD =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| D=
ial-Up: US, PR, Canada<br>
Software Tool & Die =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Public Access Internet =C2=A0 =C2=A0=
 | SINCE 1989 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 *oo*<br>
</blockquote></div>