So Philip Smith / Geoff Huston's CIDR report becomes worth a good hard look today

Wed Aug 13 15:55:32 UTC 2014

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Apologies for replying to my own post, but... below:

On 8/13/2014 7:05 AM, Paul Ferguson wrote:

> On 8/13/2014 6:52 AM, Warren Kumari wrote:
> 
>> Am I overly cynical, or does this all work out perfectly for
>> some vendors? I'm guessing that a certain vendor is going to see
>> a huge number of orders for new equipment, for an event that
>> could have been (and was) easily predicted... "Here, buy my
>> widget... and then you'll come back in a few years and buy
>> another one.. <mwahahahah>". Yup, folk purchasing these *should*
>> have known (not like there was no discussions of this), but,
>> well, not everyone spends all day reading NANOG / RIPE / CIDR
>> report...
> 
> I am not an operator, but I used to be a *really* active routing 
> engineer once upon a time in the stone age :-) and what really
> bothers me is the serious lack of general awareness on the issue of
> routing table size, aggregation, and stability, and what effect it
> has on the global Internet.
> 
> Especially questions like this:
> 
> "Is it time to switch to all IPv6 yet?"
> 
> http://tech-beta.slashdot.org/story/14/08/13/0048244/the-ipv4-internet-hiccups
>
>  If anyone *seriously* believes that IPv6 will have any positive
> effect on this particular issue, you are sorely misinformed. If
> anything, it will make the problem worse, since the ability to "get
> aggregation wrong" will be much easier.
> 
> I'm not being cynical, I'm being a realist. :-/
> 
> - ferg
> 
> 
> p.s. I recall some IPv6 prefix growth routing projections by Vince 
> Fuller and Tony Li from several years ago which illustrated this,
> but cannot find a reference at the moment....
> 
> 

I found it:

"Scaling issues with ipv6 routing+multihoming"
Vince Fuller, Cisco Systems
http://iab.org/wp-content/IAB-uploads/2011/03/vaf-iab-raws.pdf

I think the slides [above] were done for an IAB routing workshop in ~2006.

Also:

"Scaling of Internet Routing and Addressing: past view, present
reality,and possible futures"
Vince Fuller, Cisco Systems
http://www.vaf.net/~vaf/apricotworkshop.pdf

FYI,

- - ferg

- -- 
Paul Ferguson
VP Threat Intelligence, IID
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