So Philip Smith / Geoff Huston's CIDR report becomes worth a good hard look today

Paul Ferguson fergdawgster at
Wed Aug 13 14:05:19 UTC 2014

Hash: SHA256

On 8/13/2014 6:52 AM, Warren Kumari wrote:

> Am I overly cynical, or does this all work out perfectly for some 
> vendors? I'm guessing that a certain vendor is going to see a huge 
> number of orders for new equipment, for an event that could have
> been (and was) easily predicted... "Here, buy my widget... and then
> you'll come back in a few years and buy another one..
> <mwahahahah>". Yup, folk purchasing these *should* have known (not
> like there was no discussions of this), but, well, not everyone
> spends all day reading NANOG / RIPE / CIDR report...

I am not an operator, but I used to be a *really* active routing
engineer once upon a time in the stone age :-) and what really bothers
me is the serious lack of general awareness on the issue of routing
table size, aggregation, and stability, and what effect it has on the
global Internet.

Especially questions like this:

"Is it time to switch to all IPv6 yet?"

If anyone *seriously* believes that IPv6 will have any positive effect
on this particular issue, you are sorely misinformed. If anything, it
will make the problem worse, since the ability to "get aggregation
wrong" will be much easier.

I'm not being cynical, I'm being a realist. :-/

- - ferg

p.s. I recall some IPv6 prefix growth routing projections by Vince
Fuller and Tony Li from several years ago which illustrated this, but
cannot find a reference at the moment....

- -- 
Paul Ferguson
VP Threat Intelligence, IID
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