Big day for IPv6 - 1% native penetration

Mon Nov 26 21:14:35 UTC 2012

Compulsion won't come from IPv6-only content. It will come from IPv6-only
users.

Any content/apps/service providers who fail to provide for this fact before we reach
that point are making a bet-the-business gamble on the theory that NAT44(4...)
will somehow scale well beyond what is likely IMHO.

When we reach compulsion, it will not happen slowly or gracefully. We will have
hit a wall with IPv4 and IPv4 will simply and suddenly stop growing. Likely in a
rather graphic and unpleasant way because it will likely be when we hit some form
of scaling limit on the NAT infrastructure where it suddenly keels over and IPv4
only users are down for a series of outages while everyone scrambles to remove
load from the IPv4 network in order to get it running again.

The alternative is to recognize the coming problem, deploy IPv6 proactively to
content/apps/services and then wait for ISPs and end-users to catch up and begin
using those IPv6 capabilities.

Owen

On Nov 26, 2012, at 06:25 , Damian Menscher <damian at google.com> wrote:

> On Mon, Nov 26, 2012 at 5:53 AM, Dobbins, Roland <rdobbins at arbor.net> wrote:
> 
>> Again, where're the compelling IPv6-only content/apps/services?
>> 
> 
> To answer your rhetorical question, http://www.kame.net/ has a dancing
> kame.  To my knowledge, that's the most compelling IPv6-only content.
> Unsurprisingly, this does not drive user adoption, and major sites won't
> add IPv6-only content while a significant fraction of users are v4-only.
> 
> Stalemate.
> 
> Damian