Yahoo and IPv6

William Herrin bill at
Sat May 14 18:31:29 UTC 2011

On Sat, May 14, 2011 at 1:06 PM, Paul Vixie <vixie at> wrote:
>> From: Marshall Eubanks <tme at>
>> Date: Sat, 14 May 2011 13:02:16 -0400
>> I think that the real question is, when will people who are running
>> IPv4 only not be on the Internet by this definition ?
> is there an online betting mechanism we could use, that we all think will
> still be in business decades from now when the truth is known?

> if we're
> going to start picking the month and year when IPv4 is the new "PDP-11
> compatibility mode" (that's a VAX reference), where the winner is whoever
> comes closest without going over, my pick is July 2021, and i'm in for $50.

Two suggestions:

1. Predict the condition, not the date. In other words, not "Condition
X will occur at Y" but "At Y, condition X will be true." The problem
with predicting the date is that the bet can't close until the
condition occurs. That leaves an unbounded case.

2. Measurability. How do you measure, "IPv4 is the new PDP-11
compatibility mode?" Try something like, "In the month of July 2021,
X% of the network traffic by packet count on the top 5 Internet
carriers will contain IPv4 packets. "

Bill Herrin

William D. Herrin ................ herrin at  bill at
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <>
Falls Church, VA 22042-3004

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