estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

William Herrin bill at
Sun Mar 13 20:56:33 CDT 2011

On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 5:40 PM, Jeff Wheeler <jsw at> wrote:
> On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 3:42 PM, Christopher Morrow
> <morrowc.lists at> wrote:
>> not need that info, but the edge likely does, yes? Have 100g customers
>> today? planning on having them in the next ~8/12/18 months?
> If you did your purchasing the way Bill Herrin suggests, you'd buy a
> box with 100GbE ports for a POP or branch that is not projected to
> have 100GbE customers, just because it's the biggest box.


No, Chris wouldn't, because that misrepresents my suggestion. What I
suggested is that you spend your efforts making solid projections and
then buy a box that satisfies the targeted function for the
foreseeable future. That way you don't spend manpower replacing it
until something materially different than the projections occurs.
Which avoids some mistaken-driven and defect-driven outages and has a
myriad of similar secondary effects.

Circuit outages are minimized when the CWA is on strike. Why? Because
nobody's futzing with the equipment. There's a lesson there: maximize
reliability by minimizing change.

For your information, the ISP where I was the operations director
survived the burst of the bubble. While revenues shrunk significantly
it was still in the black in 2004 when I left. To the best of my
knowledge it remained in the black until it was sold a few years
later. There were a number of causes, but one of them was that in the
key time frames we were able to crunch the capital budget to almost
nothing, there being sufficient excess capacity in most of the
equipment we already owned.

> His
> position is that man-power to do an upgrade is always more costly than
> capital dollars for the actual equipment, and ignores the fact that
> the biggest box is by no means guaranteed to offer new *features*
> which may be required.

My position is that the terminal size of the IPv4 table is visible on
the horizon. Now that it's part of the foreseeable future, I'd like to
be able to buy boxes that support it.

Bill Herrin

William D. Herrin ................ herrin at  bill at
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <>
Falls Church, VA 22042-3004

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