estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

Wed Mar 9 18:30:20 UTC 2011

	http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&cluster=6058676534328717115  

@article{cittadini2010evolution,
  title={{Evolution of Internet Address Space Deaggregation: Myths and Reality}},
  author={Cittadini, L. and Muhlbauer, W. and Uhlig, S. and Bush, R. and Fran{\c{c}}ois, P. and Maennel, O.},
  journal={Selected Areas in Communications, IEEE Journal on},
  volume={28},
  number={8},
  pages={1238--1249},
  issn={0733-8716},
  year={2010},
  publisher={IEEE}
}

	But times are changing and IMHO in the future the growth would be because of deaggregation (in v4). For v6 the growth I assume is (and will be) allocation, but I do not have a research to support that.

-as

On 9 Mar 2011, at 16:00, David Conrad wrote:

> On Mar 9, 2011, at 7:28 AM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>>> It won't, it will take an "S" shape eventually. Possibly around 120k prefixes, then it will follow the normal growth of the Internet as v4 did. 
>> I think it will grow a lot slower than IPv4 because with rational planning, few organizations should need to add more prefixes annually, the way they had to in IPv4 due to scarcity based allocation policies.
> 
> The implication of this statement would seem to be that the reason the routing tables are growing is due primarily to allocations and not deaggregation (e.g., for traffic engineering).  Does anyone have any actual data to corroborate or refute this?
> 
> Regards,
> -drc
> 