Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

Tue Jun 7 06:24:37 UTC 2011

In message <E230DE23-AD00-4F3D-B384-BA52FA7B3691 at delong.com>, Owen DeLong writes:
> 
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:49 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
> 
> >=20
> > In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F at delong.com>, Owen =
> DeLong write
> > s:
> >>=20
> >> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
> >>=20
> >>> =3D20
> >>> In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892 at goat.gigo.com>, =
> Jason =3D
> >> Fesler wr
> >>> ites:
> >>>>> But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
> >>>>> IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =3D
> >> populace
> >>>>> can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =3D=
> 
> >> calling
> >>>>> and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
> >>>> =3D20
> >>>> Won't happen this year or next.  Too much money at stake for the =
> web=3D20=3D
> >>=20
> >>>> sites.  Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be =
> even=3D20
> >>>> remotely considered.  Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial =
> =3D
> >> at=3D20
> >>>> $dayjob.
> >>> =3D20
> >>> IPv4 will never reach those figures.  IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
> =3D
> >> for
> >>> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 =
> only
> >>> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
> >>=20
> >> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =3D
> >> internet
> >> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
> =3D
> >> (about
> >> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit =
> percentage
> >> of the future network.
> >>=20
> >> Owen
> >=20
> > And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will
> > continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis.  I would be quite happy
> > to be proven wrong and only time will tell.
> >=20
> Almost every client does have a strong IPv6 bias if they have what
> appears to be native connectivity. The bias degrades rapidly with
> other forms of host connectivity.
> 
> My linux and Mac systems certainly seem to strongly prefer IPv6
> from my home. YMMV.

Things like happy-eyeballs diminish it even with perfect IPv6
connectivity.  100ms rtt doesn't cover the world and to make
multi-homed servers (includes dual stack) work well clients will
make additional connections.

> Owen
-- 
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org