Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)
marka at isc.org
Mon Jun 6 18:49:14 CDT 2011
In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F at delong.com>, Owen DeLong write
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
> > In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892 at goat.gigo.com>, Jason =
> Fesler wr
> > ites:
> >>> But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
> >>> IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =
> >>> can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =
> >>> and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
> >> Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the web=20=
> >> sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even=20
> >> remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial =
> >> $dayjob.
> > IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
> > that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
> > sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =
> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> of the future network.
And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will
continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis. I would be quite happy
to be proven wrong and only time will tell.
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742 INTERNET: marka at isc.org
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