Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

Jérôme Nicolle jerome at ceriz.fr
Mon Jun 6 18:45:38 CDT 2011


2011/6/6 Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com>:
> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet
> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about
> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> of the future network.
>
> Owen

Internet' growth is measured by bandwidth rather than number of active
operators or prefixes. Maxing a router's backplane or upgrading it
won't change the network to a whole new thing, as most operators will
just keep the old ways over and over.

Considering the amount of trafic will double in the next 24 months or
so, wich seems a reasonable assumption, I think IPv6 trafic has some
more potential growth to come than v4, but even the later will still
grow.

Keeping that in mind makes me expect a very progressive curve for the
significance of IPv6 in the overall bandwidth usage stats, unless
eyeballs networks starts to make a major move towards IPv6 effective
deployments.

But honestly, while working mostly for eyballs networks, I can assure
you even the largest ain't close to ready for such a move ;)


-- 
Jérôme Nicolle




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