ipv4's last graph

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Wed Feb 2 13:09:26 CST 2011


Currently there is no policy in ARIN that would do that short of the last /10,
so, the line should change at 1/4 of the last /8.

Owen

On Feb 2, 2011, at 10:43 AM, Richard Barnes wrote:

> Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level
> out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out"
> policies in place [1][2][3].  Either that, or just consider arriving
> at 1 /8 left as depletion.
> 
> Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies?
> 
> [1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10>
> [2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1>
> [3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html>
> 
> 
> 
> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf at tndh.net> wrote:
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary at unsane.co.uk]
>>> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM
>>> To: nanog at nanog.org
>>> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
>>> 
>>> On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
>>>> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf at tndh.net> wrote:
>>>>> So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't
>>> get my
>>>>> head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2
>>> months
>>>>> and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs
>>> Aug.
>>>>> 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
>>>>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
>>>>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
>>>>> 
>>>>> Tony
>>>> Two things:
>>>> 
>>>> 1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple
>>>>      image, rather than requiring a PDF download.  :/
>>> Not wishing to advertise google but
>>> 
>>> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
>>> rir-pools.pdf
>>> and
>>> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
>>> rir-pools-zoom.pdf
>>> 
>>> 
>>> works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
>> 
>> For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site.
>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg
>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
>> 
>> 
>>> 
>>> Vince
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>>> 2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale
>>>> of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of
>>>> pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
>> 
>> I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for
>> scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation'
>> policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something
>> readable.
>> 
>> 
>>>> 
>>>> But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which
>>>> is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic".  ^_^;
>> 
>> Geoff has always been the optimist ...  ;0
>> 
>> 
>>>> 
>>>> Matt
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 





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