ipv4's last graph

Richard Barnes richard.barnes at gmail.com
Wed Feb 2 12:43:58 CST 2011


Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level
out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out"
policies in place [1][2][3].  Either that, or just consider arriving
at 1 /8 left as depletion.

Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies?

[1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10>
[2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1>
[3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html>



On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf at tndh.net> wrote:
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary at unsane.co.uk]
>> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM
>> To: nanog at nanog.org
>> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
>>
>> On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
>> > On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf at tndh.net> wrote:
>> >> So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't
>> get my
>> >> head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2
>> months
>> >> and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs
>> Aug.
>> >> 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
>> >> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
>> >> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
>> >>
>> >> Tony
>> > Two things:
>> >
>> > 1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple
>> >      image, rather than requiring a PDF download.  :/
>> Not wishing to advertise google but
>>
>> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
>> rir-pools.pdf
>> and
>> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
>> rir-pools-zoom.pdf
>>
>>
>> works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
>
> For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site.
> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg
> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
>
>
>>
>> Vince
>>
>>
>>
>> > 2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale
>> > of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of
>> > pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
>
> I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for
> scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation'
> policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something
> readable.
>
>
>> >
>> > But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which
>> > is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic".  ^_^;
>
> Geoff has always been the optimist ...  ;0
>
>
>> >
>> > Matt
>
>
>
>




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