quietly....

Paul Graydon paul at paulgraydon.co.uk
Tue Feb 1 20:27:40 CST 2011


On 02/01/2011 04:11 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
> On Feb 1, 2011, at 3:54 PM, Lee Howard wrote:
>
>>> "People won't be able to access our site"
>>> sure helps but being unable to put a date on it still reduces incentive
>>> (especially when Management get involved, and especially if there is a
>>> financial outlay involving firewalls etc.).
>> Geoff generously provided a probabilistic sense for RIR runout:
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
>> Pick your RIR and plot its runout date.  If it's ARIN, then the first
>> ISP is out of IPv4 addresses at most three months later (since ARIN
>> now allocates for three months' need).  Of course, if demand increases,
>> these dates might change.
>>
>> Will users be unable to reach your content on $RIR_runout_date + 3?
>> They might have to get there through large-scale NAT.  That might
>> bother management if you rely on IP geo-location, or need to
>> initiate connections downstream, or rate limit per IP address, or
>> have anti-DOS techniques measuring hits per source IP address,
>> or have employees VPN in, or need to report intrusions, or any of
>> the many problems widely documented.
>>
>> Oh, and when I said to pick your RIR, I meant the RIR of users
>> who access your content.
>>
>> Lee
>>
> I think there is a key problem with Geoff's graph.
>
> I think it fails to take into account the transitive probability of requests
> among the largest 3 regions. I agree that APNIC will probably run
> just about exactly as he predicts. I think, however, that the runout
> at APNIC will create a higher demand in ARIN and RIPE. Once that
> happens, their runout dates will get moved up much closer to
> the runout date of APNIC. As soon as the second of the three
> runs out, the remaining one will get another burst of acceleration.
>
> It does not appear to me that this probability is accounted for in the
> plots.
>
> Owen
>
> (Including Geoff because it's not fair to criticize his work behind his back)

Are there any expectations of a Gold Rush for the remaining addresses?  
I would expect to see at least see some kind of escalation.

Paul




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