Did Internet Founders Actually Anticipate Paid,

Sat Sep 18 18:51:44 UTC 2010

> Of course the high level of oversub is an issue....

We'll disagree then.  Oversub makes access affordable.

>..with the scary boogeyman of evil illegal P2P filesharing

That just tips the money in the wrong direction.  And it's a real threat 
(amongst others)...not just that deadly clown hiding under your bed.

> Consider: the practical reality is that we're seeing more and more
> gizmos that do more and more network things.  We're going to see
> DVR's downloading content over the Internet, you'll see your nav
> system downloading map updates over the Internet, these are all
> "new" devices that didn't exist ~10 years ago in their current form,
> and they're changing consumer usage patterns.

Yeah, I think we all know and see that stuff.  But, unless some 
technological model changes bit pricing, the premise of oversub still wins. 
Going 1:1 today (or in the near future) makes no sense unless you layer 
something on top (advertising, qos, buttercream icing?).

>There is no reason to
> expect that the "business model" will remain useful or that any
> component of it, such as massive oversubscription, must necessarily
> be correct and remain viable in its current form, just because it
> worked a decade ago.

Well, I'm talking 10 years ago up until present.  How do you see the sub 
model turning?  1:1?  If so, how?  And, still some profit?

tv 