Did Internet Founders Actually Anticipate Paid,

Joe Greco jgreco at ns.sol.net
Sat Sep 18 18:38:01 UTC 2010

> > On one hand, we all recognize oversubscription as an issue. 
> The high-level of oversub isn't the issue, it's part of the business model.

Of course the high level of oversub is an issue, because service
providers are not willing to commit to providing some particular
level of service.  The business model has kind-of worked up to this
point, with the scary boogeyman of evil illegal P2P filesharing 
used as justification for traffic engineering on shared pipes that
are too small to handle the deluge of data that is growing daily.

Consider: the practical reality is that we're seeing more and more
gizmos that do more and more network things.  We're going to see
DVR's downloading content over the Internet, you'll see your nav
system downloading map updates over the Internet, these are all
"new" devices that didn't exist ~10 years ago in their current form,
and they're changing consumer usage patterns.

ISP's developed a "business model" that allowed profitability in an
environment where each access line had marginal usage associated with
it.  The environment continues to evolve.  There is no reason to 
expect that the "business model" will remain useful or that any
component of it, such as massive oversubscription, must necessarily
be correct and remain viable in its current form, just because it
worked a decade ago.

... JG
Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net
"We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I
won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN)
With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.

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