ARIN recognizes Interop for return of more than 99% of 45/8 address block

Thu Oct 21 00:28:12 UTC 2010

John Curran wrote:
> On Oct 20, 2010, at 11:35 AM, Christopher Morrow wrote:
> 
> > yes, sorry.. since this was returned to ARIN, I assumed the ARIN
> > region drain rate.
> 
> Ah, good point.  It may end up in the global pool, so comparison to
> either drain rate is quite reasonable.

For what it's worth, at this point it really doesn't matter much if 45/8
stays at ARIN or goes back to IANA. RIPE is due for a pair around 12/15 -->>
IANA @ 10
APnic burned through the last 2 in 67 days, so given end of year slowing
they should be back for another pair around 1/2/11.  -->> IANA @ 8
If 45/8 goes back to IANA, ARIN is due to get a pair around 2/1. -->> IANA @
6 + 45/8
APnic comes back for the last one + 45/8 around 3/1 -->> IANA @ 5 triggers
end of pool.

If ARIN keeps 45/8, the only difference would be they would probably not
qualify for the estimated 2/1/11 allocation, so that event would be delayed
and when 45/8 was used up so they would qualify, there would only be 1 left
because APnic would have gotten their pair around 3/1 first. Any way you cut
it, around 3/1/11 APnic/ARIN/RIPE will each be holding around 4 /8's + their
remaining share of 'Various Registries' (ARIN's last one could sit at IANA
for an additional couple of weeks, but they would still be next in line
unless they take too long). 

The wild card to the above scenario is Afrinic. They are close enough for an
unusual event to qualify them for another /8 from IANA within this
timeframe. If that happens, the disposition of 45/8 could impact how many
APnic is holding around 3/1/11. Given that APnic is burning through a /8 on
an accelerating pace currently at 33 days, +/- one will impact how soon the
address market takes off. If Afrinic gets one and 45/8 stays at ARIN, APnic
will pick up the last pair at IANA around 3/1 and be completely out within 6
months. If 45/8 goes back, ARIN picks up 2 in early Feb, so with Afrinic
getting one there would only be one left for APnic. 

Tony