[Fwd: [members-discuss] [ncc-announce] RIPE NCC Position On The ITU IPv6 Group]
nick at foobar.org
Sat Feb 27 00:45:39 UTC 2010
On 26/02/2010 22:13, David Conrad wrote:
> If you want to be really frightened, remember that the IPv4 free pool
> is going to be exhausted in something like 576 days. Given the lack
> of IPv6 deployment, the subsequent food fights that erupt as markets
> in IPv4 addresses are established are likely going to be
> "interesting". Politicians very much like to be seen to be "doing
> something" in interesting food fights.
There is no doubt that there will be the most unholy bun-fight.
Journalists will elevate themselves to the highest ivory towers and crow
about how they foresaw all this happening years in advance, if only
anyone had bothered to listen to them. Communications regulators will
tut-tut loudly and commission long-winded reports on the effect of ipv4
starvation to the Digital Economy, and set up sub-committees and
sub-sub-committees to examine potential solutions, all due to report
within an 18-24 month time-frame, and all recommending migration to ipv6
over time (woohoo! - what insight!).
The vendors will have a field day selling NATs, carrier grade NATs and
all sorts of magical upgrades, all designed at milking the last tiny
amounts of value out of each single ipv4 address - and your wallet.
Notwithstanding this, their IPv6 support will still be curiously badly
implemented, tacked on as an afterthought for those stingy service
provider types rather than the cash-cow corporates and public sector
customers who'll swallow anything that's given a good review in the
The WSIS will turn into a shouting match, or even more of a shouting
match. Actually, scratch that: it'll turn into a foaming pit of rabid
evangelists, each preaching their gospel of ill-informed craziness,
allowing the ITU to step in and demonstrate that their mature and
seasoned approach to the problem is the only realistic way of dealing
with ipv4 scarcity, if only the internet and its short-sighted approach
to proper standards based telco engineering were to come under their
And the politicians. Yes, they will erupt in hitherto unseen outbursts
of self-righteous indignation at the stupid internet engineers who let
this problem happen in the first place and who made no provision
whatsoever for viable alternatives, and will then declare the the only
reasonable way of dealing with the problem is their particular type of
regulation, mandating this or that but - funnily enough - very little of
it making any sense whatever and all of it adding to the old maxim that
there is no problem which exists which can't be made worse by
regulation. As you note, anything for a couple of column inches.
Oh, it will be fun.
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