off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Jared Mauch jared at puck.nether.net
Sun Aug 8 09:29:32 CDT 2010


One thing I have heard repeated about one large carrier is that only 10% of their network is used for their Internet product. The remainder of it is used for private leased lines (could also be someone running IP) or another carrier that is leasing a loop or tdm service from them. 

Jared Mauch

On Aug 8, 2010, at 9:30 AM, odlyzko at umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko) wrote:

> Fascinating.  Memories may be plastic (something that has been
> established scientifically), or else we may have yet another
> inconsistency to add to the pile of others.  Is there any
> documentation about the "doubling every nine months"?  I have
> never seen that particular claim emanating from anyone involved
> with WorldCom/UUNet.
> 
> On the other hand, existing record shows (among others):
> 
> 1.  U.S. Department of Commerce white paper from April 1998,
> 
>   http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ecommerce/EDEreprt.pdf
> 
> on p. 8 declares that "UUNET, one of the largest Internet
> backbone providers, estimates that Internet traffic doubles
> every 100 days," with a reference to an Inktomi white paper
> that attributes this claim to Mike O'Dell.  The Inktomi 
> report is no longer on the Web, but I can provide a copy
> to anyone interested.
> 
> 2.  The transcript of the May 2000 presentation by O'Dell
> at a Stanford conference clearly has him saying that the
> capacity of the UUNet network, as measured by OC12-miles,
> doubles every four months,
> 
>   http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/odell-transcript.txt
> 
> As is explained in my paper, in the 1998-2000 time frame,
> essentially all the WorldCom/UUNet claims then seemed to be
> about capacity, not traffic.
> 
> 3.  The year-end 2000 email from O'Dell to Dave Farber's IP list,
> 
>  http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200011/msg00058.html
> 
> has him talking of traffic doubling each year, while capacity
> grows 8-fold.
> 
> If some time in that period there was a claim of a "doubling 
> every nine months," too, that would be very interesting.
> 
> Andrew
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Randy Bush <randy at psg.com> wrote:
> 
>>>> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months.
>>> Mine too.
>> 
>> mo's too.  i asked.
>> 
>> randy




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