"IP networks will feel traffic pain in 2009" (C|Net & Cisco)

Mikael Abrahamsson swmike at swm.pp.se
Tue Jan 20 19:58:21 UTC 2009

On Tue, 20 Jan 2009, Paul Vixie wrote:

> "Cisco VNI projections indicate that IP traffic will increase at a combined
> annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling
> every two years. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on the
> world's IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes2, or more than half a
> zettabyte."

Two thoughts:

Why do some people think that bytes/month is a relevant measure of 
traffic? Peak bits/second is what you need to make your network handle for 
it to perform well.

For me CAGR of 46% is a slowdown. I'm used to 75-120% growth per year in 
traffic, 46% is a relief. As markets mature (we're seeing decline in # of 
DSL lines in the country, increase is in LAN and mobile) less new people 
are going online (the ones who want Internet access already have it) and 
the increase per year in traffic by existing users is slower than the 
increase seen during the rush of new users coming online.

This will of course vary by where you are in the world...

Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike at swm.pp.se

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