Any recent predictions for routing table growth?
bradfreeman at gmail.com
Tue Nov 4 10:59:19 CST 2008
Thank you very much David, the Routing Growth estimates is exactly the
research I was after.
2008/11/4 David Andersen <dga at cs.cmu.edu>
> Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:
> Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The
> June 2008: 247K entries
> Growth rate: 17% per year
> So - June 2009: 288k
> There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says "2.07 *
> 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 * 10^5. Sigh. I'll
> get that corrected. :)
> Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we used
> routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR report as your
> starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17% exponential growth would
> predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report would report 284k prefixes;
> in reality, it reported 286. So, reasonably close. But you want to start
> with the # of prefixes that YOU observe, since that's going to be a little
> different depending on your vantage point.
> Plug in:
> STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)
> e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)
> and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change course. :)
> On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:
>> I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table
>> growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince
>> Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or
>> figures out?
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