Any recent predictions for routing table growth?

David Andersen dga at cs.cmu.edu
Tue Nov 4 09:13:50 CST 2008


Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:

http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html

Look in section 4.1.  The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008.  The  
gist:

June 2008:  247K entries
Growth rate:  17% per year

So - June 2009:  288k

There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says  
"2.07 * 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 *  
10^5.  Sigh.  I'll get that corrected. :)

Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we  
used routeviews as our baseline.  If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR  
report as your starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17%  
exponential growth would predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report  
would report 284k prefixes;  in reality, it reported 286.  So,  
reasonably close.  But you want to start with the # of prefixes that  
YOU observe, since that's going to be a little different depending on  
your vantage point.

Plug in:

STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)

e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)

and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change  
course. :)

On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:

> Hi,
>
> I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing  
> table
> growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince
> Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or  
> alternative
> figures out?
>
> Thanks
>
> Bradley
>

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