[NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion

Sun May 4 03:22:26 UTC 2008

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by 
organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

Geoff Huston wrote:
> Mike Leber wrote:
>> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
>> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>>
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
> 
>  ....
> 
>> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding.  Do people do
>> that?
>>
>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement.  :)
>>
> 
> 
> I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
> out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's 
> x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
> with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!
> 
> IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address 
> allocations are  relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively 
> large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking
> large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It
> could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very
> uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change
> in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....
> 
> So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
> the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... 
> but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.
> 
> regards,
> 
>     Geoff
> 
> 
> 
> 
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