[Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

William Warren hescominsoon at emmanuelcomputerconsulting.com
Tue Apr 22 00:20:49 CDT 2008


Here in comcast land hdtv is actually averaging around 12 megabits a 
second.  Still adds up to staggering numbers..:)

Steve Gibbard wrote:
> On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Sean Donelan wrote:
> 
>> The rest of the story?
>>
>> http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/services/2008-04-20-internet-broadband-traffic-jam_N.htm
>>
>>   By 2010, the average household will be using 1.1 terabytes (roughly
>>   equal to 1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia Britannica) of bandwidth a
>>   month, according to an estimate by the Internet Innovation Alliance in
>>   Washington, D.C. At that level, it says, 20 homes would generate more
>>   traffic than the entire Internet did in 1995.
>>
>> How many folks remember InternetMCI's lack of capacity in the 1990's
>> when it actually needed to stop installing new Internet connections
>> because InternetMCI didn't have any more capacity for several months.
> 
> I've been on the side arguing that there's going to be enough growth to 
> cause interesting issues (which is very different than arguing for any 
> specific remedy that the telcos think will be in their benefit), but the 
> numbers quoted above strike me as an overstatement.
> 
> Let's look at the numbers:
> 
> iTunes video, which looks perfectly acceptable on my old NTSC TV, is .75 
> gigabytes per viewable hour.  I think HDTV is somewhere around 8 megabits 
> per second (if I'm remembering correctly; I may be wrong about that), 
> which would translate to one megabyte per second, or 3.6 gigabytes per 
> hour.
> 
> For iTunes video, 1.1 terabytes would be 1,100 gigabytes, or 1,100 / .75 = 
> 1,467 hours.  1,467 / 30 = 48.9 hours of video per day.  Even assuming we 
> divide that among three or four people in a household, that's staggering.
> 
> For HDTV, 1,100 gigabytes would be 1,100 / 3.6 = 306 hours per month.  306 
> / 30 = 10.2 hours per day.
> 
> Maybe I just don't spend enough time around the "leave the TV on all day" 
> demographic.  Is that a realistic number?  Is there something bigger than 
> HDTV video that ATT expects people to start downloading?
> 
> -Steve
> 
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