[Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010
hescominsoon at emmanuelcomputerconsulting.com
Tue Apr 22 00:20:49 CDT 2008
Here in comcast land hdtv is actually averaging around 12 megabits a
second. Still adds up to staggering numbers..:)
Steve Gibbard wrote:
> On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Sean Donelan wrote:
>> The rest of the story?
>> By 2010, the average household will be using 1.1 terabytes (roughly
>> equal to 1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia Britannica) of bandwidth a
>> month, according to an estimate by the Internet Innovation Alliance in
>> Washington, D.C. At that level, it says, 20 homes would generate more
>> traffic than the entire Internet did in 1995.
>> How many folks remember InternetMCI's lack of capacity in the 1990's
>> when it actually needed to stop installing new Internet connections
>> because InternetMCI didn't have any more capacity for several months.
> I've been on the side arguing that there's going to be enough growth to
> cause interesting issues (which is very different than arguing for any
> specific remedy that the telcos think will be in their benefit), but the
> numbers quoted above strike me as an overstatement.
> Let's look at the numbers:
> iTunes video, which looks perfectly acceptable on my old NTSC TV, is .75
> gigabytes per viewable hour. I think HDTV is somewhere around 8 megabits
> per second (if I'm remembering correctly; I may be wrong about that),
> which would translate to one megabyte per second, or 3.6 gigabytes per
> For iTunes video, 1.1 terabytes would be 1,100 gigabytes, or 1,100 / .75 =
> 1,467 hours. 1,467 / 30 = 48.9 hours of video per day. Even assuming we
> divide that among three or four people in a household, that's staggering.
> For HDTV, 1,100 gigabytes would be 1,100 / 3.6 = 306 hours per month. 306
> / 30 = 10.2 hours per day.
> Maybe I just don't spend enough time around the "leave the TV on all day"
> demographic. Is that a realistic number? Is there something bigger than
> HDTV video that ATT expects people to start downloading?
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