[Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

Williams, Marc Marc.Williams at neustar.biz
Fri Apr 18 20:56:22 UTC 2008

If the cable operators put their broadcast content onto an access
network multicast . . . Then how could they resell the same content to

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Scott Francis [mailto:darkuncle at gmail.com] 
> Sent: Friday, April 18, 2008 4:15 PM
> To: nanog at nanog.org
> Subject: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010
> http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html
> I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat 
> dubious (working for a company that produces video for online 
> distribution) - although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as 
> "in 3 years' time, 20 typical households will generate more 
> traffic than the entire Internet today". Is there some secret 
> plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical households" in the next 
> 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't have accurate 
> figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
> generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be 
> generated by any single household regardless of equipment 
> installed, torrents traded or videos downloaded. Even given a 
> liberal application of Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the 
> case in 2010 either.
> Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims 
> were (if they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from 
> ATT engineering?
> Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers 
> were tossed into the air without any mention of how they were 
> derived. A cynical person might be tempted to think it was 
> all a scare tactic to soften up legislators for the next wave 
> of "reasonable network management" practices that just happen 
> to have significant revenue streams attached to them ...
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